Advanced Stats Indicate Few, If Any, Are Better Than Derek Carr In Two-Minute Drill

Derek Carr may not have a winning record as an NFL quarterback (a competent defense is generally required to achieve as much), but when the game is on the line there are few quarterbacks better.

That’s not an opinion or hot take. It’s what the numbers say.

Since 2019, Carr’s EPA metric in the final four minutes of halves is the best in the NFL – narrowly edging out Pat Mahomes.

For those who aren’t familiar with quarterback EPA, it’s an advanced statistic that attempts to quantify total expected points added with low leverage plays (based on ESPN’s Win Probability model).

Or in layman’s terms, this might be a little better definition:

“EPA is based off the notion that not all yards gained in football are of equal value. For example, a 5-yard gain on third-and-3 increases a team’s chances of scoring much more than the same 5-yard gain on third-and-10. While both situations would reflect a gain of five yards in a traditional box score, the first would result in a first down and continue the drive, while the other would likely force the team to punt on fourth down. Expected Points attempts to quantify this difference in value by relating each play to how much it increases (or decreases) a team’s chances of scoring.”

Still confused?

Let’s look at Carr’s PFF grades when he’s up against the clock (not that anyone knows who or how PFF really comes up with these numbers).

Below are overall grades handed out by Pro Football Focus for quarterbacks in the final four minutes of the second quarter, fourth quarter, and overtime.

Via PFF’s Eric Eager

And PFF grades for quarterbacks playing in games with 7 points of separation or less…

Via PFF’s Eric Eager

Whatever your opinion of Carr, there’s no question that he’s at his best when it matters most. Now the Raiders need to find a way to keep games close and let Carr be in position to win a few more games.

And as a friendly aside, a single-digit lead is not enough to hand the ball off for the rest of the game…

twitter: @raidersbeat



3 thoughts on “Advanced Stats Indicate Few, If Any, Are Better Than Derek Carr In Two-Minute Drill

  1. Carr haters gonna hate. Nice comment at the end…lol. I couldn’t agree more. Gruden gets a slim lead in the first quarter and tries to run out the clock.

  2. The raidersbeatdown has done nothing but talk crap about Carr 4 to 5 years posting rumors and out right lies. Just this year alone you must have reported that Carr was being traded for what must have been 10 different QB’s and you have zero proof to backup what you report. The only time you have said what your source was for the information, it was a betting site, you don’t have access to the team in any way. Even after the team reporter comes out and said he doesn’t know where all the reports come from about Carr being traded or cut. The team reporter that talks with the owner, GM, all the coaching staff, players, trainers, doctors. …. you know the stuff a real reporter does.

Comments are closed.