There is still an expectation that Geno Smith and the Raiders are going to agree to a contract extension before the start of the season, but the timing of that anticipated deal is already later than what many believed it would be.
Sports Illustrated Albert Breer believes Smith and the Raiders aren’t in the same place on guaranteed money and added that he doesn’t think there have been any holdups in the process.
“I don’t think there’s a holdup. It’s more of just negotiation,” Breer said.
“I also don’t think the Las Vegas Raiders move to land Smith without a strong feeling they could find common ground on an extension. The Seattle Seahawks, for their part, felt like they were doing Smith a favor with the trade in that Vegas had a better shot at doing a contract with him than Seattle did (they were far apart on the numbers at the end). But if you make me guess, I’d say the guarantees are probably what needs to be worked out.”
Breer’s colleague at Sports Illustrated, Hondo Carpenter, weighed in on Wednesday and he expends an extension to be reached, but added that no one is in a rush to get it done.
“The relationship is very amicable. There’s no hard feelings and no anger. I wouldn’t be surprised if a deal gets done and I expect the deal to get done. There’s zero panic by anybody on either side. There’s questions about guarantees and that kind of stuff and he wanted to be here. He loves Pete Carroll,” Carpenter said on the Las Vegas Raiders Insider podcast.
“I’ve talked people close to Geno, talked to people in the building. There’s no panic. I would not use the word that I’d be shocked if a deal doesn’t get done, but I fully expect it… I have not seen anyone trying to make people panic, but if somebody is, they’re not talking to people in the building. Everything is amicable.”
It’s worth noting that the Raiders and Smith have only had a few weeks to work on a deal, so there’s nothing unreasonable about contract negotiations taking a month or two to play out.
What Hondo also mentioned, though, was the potential use of the franchise tag after the 2025 season.
Effectively, the Raiders could view Smith’s contract as a two-year deal if they are willing to use the franchise tag on him in 2026. The quarterback franchise tag number is projected to be around $46 million in 2026 and that would presumably be a little more than what the Raiders could get away with paying him if they reach a deal now.
Geno has a $31 million cap hit in 2025, and that’s a relatively fair number considering the current quarterback market. There are 12 quarterbacks with a higher cap number next year than Smith.
Via Spotrac, here’s the list of quarterbacks with higher caps numbers in 2025 than Smith…
As an aside, there’s one thought to keep in mind going forward.
Hypothetically, if things are ever “not amicable” between the Raiders and Smith, which side would benefit from that information reaching the public eye?
For now, the team and the player both have reason to keep any frustration around a new deal in house. With the trade announced only three weeks ago, neither side should be interested in any negative attention.
With that being the case, even if there is a little contact frustration between Smith and the Raiders, we probably wouldn’t know about it yet.
And if the sides come together on a new deal in the days or weeks ahead, no one will remember that it took a little longer than initially expected to get everything figured out.
x: @raidersbeat
If the list above is correct and it’s suspect at best than he’s good right where he is.
I mean, if things were not amicable, Hondo wouldn’t be the one reporting it. That said, both sides can be plenty amicable without a deal getting done. The Raiders know what Geno wants. No reason for them to be upset. Geno knows the Raiders acquired him knowing he was going to demand a new deal. No reason for him to be upset. But if they never get to a mutually agreeable number, that’s a problem. Geno can probably be plenty amicable while holding out, too, since he has more leverage.