Jon Gruden called this back in September…
Before a single regular-season snap, Gruden told Barstool he thought the Raiders had “premeditated this whole thing” with Kirk Cousins starting. Then he made a prediction.
“But I do see around midseason; I think you’ll see Fernando at some point.”
Well, here we are. The Raiders are 3-3 after a 33-30 loss to Buffalo, their third straight. Up next: the Rams, Jets, 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. And Klint Kubiak has decided to still ride with Cousins.
So is it time?
The case for Mendoza is real…
Start with Gruden’s own logic. “I was thinking Fernando would want to get all the reps,” he said. “When you’re the scout team quarterback, it’s hard to get better… the best way to get better is on the field.”
That’s hard to argue with. Mendoza won the Heisman and led Indiana to a national title. You don’t take a guy No. 1 overall to hold a clipboard forever.
In his Week 5 garbage-time look New England, he went 6-of-8 for 48 yards, and Kubiak said “he played fast” and “got through his progressions quickly.”
Then there’s what Gruden said last week. “The Raiders can’t run the football, and that’s a real problem. It’s all on Kirk Cousins, it’s all on Brock Bowers all the time.”
He’s not wrong. Bowers has 43 of the Raiders’ 213 targets, about 20 percent. Gruden noted he’s “got 12 catches already of 15 yards or more. No other tight end has more than seven.” He even said, “Brock Bowers, God, I wish I had him.” Having a safety-valve tight end like Bowers is ideal for a young QB: a big target who wins quickly and turns short throws into chunk plays.
With a one-dimensional offense, a quarterback who can move and make something out of nothing has appeal. Add a fan base that wants the future now and a season that’s sliding, and the push makes sense.
But look at what he’d be walking into…
The run game isn’t just bad. It’s broken.
The Raiders average 3.25 yards per designed run, 30th of 32 teams. Through four games, The Athletichad them at .38 yards before contact per carry, second-lowest in the league.
And the pass protection is worse than the sack total says. Cousins has been sacked only eight times, tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. He gets the ball out. But he’s been hit. The Raiders have allowed 41 quarterback hits, sixth-most in the NFL, on about 17.8 percent of dropbacks, fifth-highest.
Now put a rookie behind that. Rookies hold the ball. They don’t know every hot read yet. Gruden said it himself in September: Mendoza “took a bunch of sacks at California,” and handling the line of scrimmage is “probably going to take a little bit of time.”
Those hits on Cousins turn into sacks on a rookie. Fast.
Historical evidence isn’t pretty…
David Carr went No. 1 overall to the Texans in 2002 and got sacked 76 times as a rookie, still the NFL record. He took 68 more in 2005.
Bryce Young, No. 1 overall in 2023, got sacked 62 times as a rookie in Carolina. Two games into Year 2, he was benched for Andy Dalton.
Caleb Williams, No. 1 overall in 2024, got sacked 68 times in Chicago, tied for third-most ever.
Joe Burrow, No. 1 overall in 2020, was sacked 32 times in 10 games before tearing his ACL.
Now the other side. Patrick Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith for basically all of 2017. Aaron Rodgerssat behind Brett Favre for three years. Jordan Lovesat behind Rodgers for three. All turned out fine.
Not every sit-and-learn works, and not every early start fails. But when the early start comes behind a line that can’t block, the list of guys who got hurt or lost their confidence gets long.
Gruden named the other problem too…
“They didn’t have a pass rush… the secondary played poorly.”
Because the Raiders’ defense got off to such a hot start, allowing 13, 14 and 27 points during the 3-0 run, nobody’s saying it out loud yet. But it’s given up 30, 45 and 33 since. Mendoza can’t fix the defense. Starting him now just puts the most important player in the building in a game the defense can’t hold.
So the verdict here is…
Gruden was right. You’ll see Fernando at some point.
But “at some point” doesn’t have to mean the starting job this season. Mendoza is healthy, he’s dressing every week, and he got his feet wet in New England. Package plays, some red zone looks, mop-up duty — fine. Get him snaps.
Just don’t hand a rookie the keys behind a line giving up the sixth-most hits in football, with no run game to lean on.
Fix the line first. Then let him loose.
The Raiders drafted Mendoza for the next 10-plus years. Considering how long Raider Nation has been waiting for a franchise QB, a little more time won’t hurt anyone.
