Pivotal Plays: Familiar Issues Lead to a Loss against Chicago

The Raiders Week 5 loss was a brutal one.

They slid back a game in the AFC West, their FiveThirtyEight playoff odds fell to 32% and their schedule only gets more difficult.

Perhaps most brutal of all is that the Raiders can chalk this loss up to many things, none of which involve being beaten by a better team: Bryan Edwards’ two costly mistakes, untimely penalties, the offensive line’s continuing struggles and the inability to convert in short-yardage situations.

At this point, these mistakes are a recurring theme and highlight this week’s Pivotal Plays.

Yannick Ngakoue Roughing the Passer

The Situation: The Bears face a 2nd and 22 with 3:10 left in the first quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 78%
The Play: One of the newest Raiders tries his hand at a Raider classic: the dumb penalty. In this case, by hitting Justin Fields late.

The Outcome: Ngakoue’s penalty bailed the Bears offense out of a likely punt situation and was worth the most EPA (2.3) by the Bears offense all game — which speaks volumes about how well the defense played and how bad this penalty was.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 73%

Raiders Fail to Convert a Fourth Down … Again

The Situation: The Raiders face a 4th and 1 with 10:18 remaining in the second quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 63%
The Play: Much like week’s past, Gruden couples the aggressive decision to go for it with a conservative run up the gut. Also like week’s past, it fails, with Alex Leatherwood being driven three yards into the backfield and blowing up the play.

The Outcome: The failed conversion is worth a game-low -3.4 EPA, sabotages a scoring opportunity and gives the Bears the ball back.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 55%

Edwards Drops a Third-Down Bomb

The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 2 with 13:59 left in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 31%
The Play: Derek Carr scrambles to his left and throws to a wide-open Bryan Edwards, who drops the pass.

The Outcome: At best, the catch would have been a touchdown. At worst, it likely would have led to a field goal. Instead, the drop led to a punt, making this play worth -1.9 EPA.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 25%

Derek Carr Intercepted on Third Down

The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 4 with 11:11 left in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 27%
The Play: With pressure in his face, Derek Carr is intercepted on a pass intended for Zay Jones.

The Outcome: The interception is worth -3.1 EPA and gives the Bears the ball at midfield.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 21%

Carr’s 4th-Down Pass to Edwards Falls Incomplete

The Situation: The Raiders face a 4th and 5 with two minutes remaining in the game.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 6%
The Play: Derek Carr’s pass falls incomplete due to a poor route by Bryan Edwards, as best described by Chris Reed’s excellent breakdown in the below video:

Chris Reed on Twitter: “The #Raiders knew they’d get man & they run the orbit version of Mesh & Up. I think the All-22 is going to show Carr expected Edwards to take this vertical into the seam like Renfrow did. *This isn’t to “defend Carr” I don’t care about that “Stan/Hater” argument. #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/tVNvzpLHmL / Twitter”

The #Raiders knew they’d get man & they run the orbit version of Mesh & Up. I think the All-22 is going to show Carr expected Edwards to take this vertical into the seam like Renfrow did. *This isn’t to “defend Carr” I don’t care about that “Stan/Hater” argument.

The Outcome: The play was worth -3.2 EPA — second lowest of the game — and ended any chance the Raiders had of winning.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 1%

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson

*Win probability data courtesy of rbsdm.com
**Highlights courtesy of NFL

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