Raider Bets: A Look At the Most Enticing Wide Receiver Prop Bet Entering The 2021 Season

Welcome to Raider Bets!

This column will be a regular look at the available wagers for the Raiders, along with analysis and recommendations.

During the lead-up to the season, we’ll focus on the plethora of Raiders futures bets out there. We’ll look at the available team futures bets such as win totals, playoff odds, player bets, individual awards, and season-long stat totals.

Once the season starts, the column will shift to game bets. Everything from over/under, player props, moneyline and spread bets will be fair game. We’ll do our best to look at these bets through an analytical lens, and not let our fandom interrupt. But, as we stand about a month away from the Raiders regular season opener against the Ravens, it appears that Vegas is underestimating their home team and there are some +EV bets to be made.

So, without further ado, let’s kick things off with my favorite Raider bet of the offseason: John Brown under 620.5 yards receiving, available at Draft Kings Sportsbook.

John Brown was a great low-risk signing for the Raiders. In the event that Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards struggled in training camp, both of which were feasible outcomes, Brown would provide insurance as a veteran playmaker.

Instead, Ruggs and Edwards have so far done the opposite. Both are listed as starters. Edwards has been a training-camp star and Ruggs has added thirteen pounds of muscle to his frame.

To make matters worse for Brown, plugged-in Athletic reporter Vic Tafur has made the case that Zay Jones is the team’s most versatile receiver and could push for playing time as a 2021 sleeper. Tafur was famously correct about Nelson Agholor’s sleeper season last year, so his opinion is one to consider.

Therefore, from a betting perspective, it’s hard to find the targets necessary for Brown to hit the 620.5 yardage mark. He’s behind Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow on the wide receiver depth chart and behind Darren Waller in the overall receiving pecking order. In other words, he’s no better than 5th in line for targets, injuries notwithstanding, and could be as low as 8th, with Zay Jones, Willie Snead and Kenyan Drake fighting for targets.

Furthermore, consider the following:

  • The 4th receiving option has never topped 500 receiving yards for Gruden’s 2018-2020 Raiders.
  • The 4th receiving option has also never topped 500 receiving yards for an NFL offense quarterbacked by Derek Carr.
  • John Brown has never topped 600 yards in a season that he started fewer than 11 games.
  • The Raiders face the hardest slate of pass defenses per FantasyPros.

Add together Brown’s projected role, the past success of Raider receivers in that role and the pass defenses that the Raiders will face and it’s easy to see why Brown’s under is my favorite offseason bet.

Wager: +1 Unit | John Brown under 620.5 yards receiving | -130 at DraftKings

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson

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