Is it time for the Raiders to move on from Pete Carroll?
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport confirmed this week that Carroll is on the hot seat in Las Vegas, but it seems like most around the team still believe the Raiders want to give him another year.
Carroll has taken a lot of criticism in his first year with the Raiders, but from the standpoint of in-game decisions, he has performed as well or better than most of his predecessors.
For example, from an analytics standpoint, the game hasn’t passed by the 74-year-old head coach when it comes to decision-making on fourth down.
The graphic below from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin suggests Carroll has been the NFL’s no. 1 decision maker in term of what analytics say to do on fourth down.
But while it’s encouraging to see Carroll making good decisions on fourth down, it seems like he is still held captive by a defensive scheme that many consider to be outdated.
A decade ago, Carroll’s ‘Legion of Boom’ defenses were known for their heavy Cover 3 tendencies, but the vast majority of defensive coaches have moved away from heavy Cover 3 game plans because they require a highly effective four-man pass rush and offenses have learned how to attack the Cover 3.
The Raiders don’t have an effective pass rush, and they haven’t been good in their soft zone coverages this year.
Nevertheless, Carroll’s defense has been trending toward more Cover 3 concepts as the season moves on, and in the last six weeks no team has come close to running as much Cover 3 as the Raiders.
According to Fantas Points Data, the Raiders have run Cover 3 on 55 percent of pass plays in the last six weeks and that’s 11 percent higher than the next closest team.
It’s no secret that Carroll has been a big influence on Patrick Graham’s defense this year, and one of the strongest indicators has been the shift in coverages.
Last year, Graham called Cover 3 concepts on about 26 percent of defensive snaps and that was right around the league medium. Now the Raiders call more Cover 3 concepts than any team in the league.
If Carroll returns in 2026, he will presumably want to build on those Cover 3 tendencies, and that isn’t particularly exciting.
So while the focus of the next four weeks will undoubtedly be on the Raiders’ offense, the defense belongs under the microscope, as well.
If the Raiders are going to go into the 2026 season with a Cover 3 heavy defense, it would be nice to see the Cover 3 hold back a few offenses before the 2025 season comes to a merciful end.
x: @raidersbeat
Without QB pressure, any coverage you play fails. Outside of 98, there hasn’t been anyone. I’m hoping Koonce is back to where he was, they say it takes a year to get back everything. I hope so, we can’t overhaul every position next year.
Crosby is freelancing far too often and it’s really hurting the defense. His gap discipline sucks. Don’t you think his teammates on the line noticed that?
Glad someone is calling his play lately , out.
Despite all of that, the final result in every game is much the same as before Pete arrived. Graham’s defense was just as inept last year as it is this year. In much the same way. The second half of games the opposition makes adjustments that he can’t counter. The only thing I see more of on the defense this year is blitzing. And it’s just as ineffective.
The second half of games the opposition makes adjustments that he can’t counter. Because…his players are gassed…there is a general lack of talent …and offenses can open up the play book on a tired group of untalented players so you can’t get back control of the game.
If his players are gassed after two quarters it’s his fault for not substituting and there’s a serious problem with the starters conditioning. These are professionals. Even if they spend 15 minutes on the field in the first half, they’re not gassed. Have you even played football? Because it sounds like you haven’t. I’m not seeing the entire line or secondary between players with their hands on their hips. I’m calling bullshit on that.
I don’t think he’s got much talent to work with. Plus Carroll dictating sone of the schemes doesn’t help. The team badly needs a GM with an eye for talent. I’d take Mayock over Brady’s bud.
I agree on Mayock. Sad thing about him is Gruden was making every decision on personnel.
I disagree somewhat on personnel. If we can hold the best teams to under two scores in the first half it completely invalidates your opinion.
It’s too Bad Richie and Mayock didn’t even get a chance despite how well they finished under major adversity
I agree the talent level is average.