Raiders Stats and Storylines: Week 2 Edition

Two weeks into the season, the Raiders are 2-0 and the storylines are appropriately rosy. Let’s take a look at some of the Week 2 stats behind these emerging storylines.

Raiders Bucking Trends and Setting Them

• Per @LordReebs, going into Week 2, the Steelers had a 69.2% winning percentage under Mike Tomlin when they had a rest advantage over their opponent, yet the Raiders prevailed.
• The Raiders opened 2-0, by beating playoff teams from the previous season, for the first time in franchise history during the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Stats & Info. 

Fourth-Down Decisions Give Raiders Edge

• Mike Tomlin’s decision to punt on 4th and 1, down 9 with 8:36 left in the game, cost the Steelers nearly 4% of win probability according to Ben Baldwin’s 4th-down decision bot. 
• Meanwhile, facing his own 4th and 1, Jon Gruden went for it, with the choice alone increasing the Raiders win probability by 2.8% and the conversion increasing it by 7%.

Derek Carr’s Hot Start Gets Hotter

• Derek Carr finished Week 2 with the NFL’s highest QBR (78.9), EPA (9.4) and second-most passing yards (382).
• Derek Carr’s had a Week 2 PFF grade of 99.9 on throws longer than 20 yards, which ranked first in Week 2.
• Derek Carr’s 5 big-time throws were also the most in Week 2, according to PFF.
• After two weeks, Derek Carr’s average depth of target of 9.5 yards is a full yard higher than any season of his career.
• Carr’s touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs traveled 46 yards in the air, tying for the longest of Derek Carr’s career, according to ESPN Stats & Info. 
• Derek Carr’s MVP odds have risen dramatically from preseason odds of +6600 to post-week-2 odds of +2500, placing him among the top ten candidates.
• It’s a small sample size, and likely unsustainable, but Derek Carr is on pace to shatter Rich Gannon’s Raider single-season passing record by over 2,000 yards.
• One sore spot remains for Carr: his two fumbles were the most in Week 2 and his 3 for the season lead the NFL. If that holds, he’d be the first player in NFL history to do so 3 out of 4 years.

Non-Waller Receiving Options Step Up

• Darren Waller had an average separation of 1.7 yards, which was the seventh-lowest average in Week 2, per Next Gen Stats, so it was important that Carr’s other options rose to the occasion.
• Rise to the occasion they did, as Carr spread the ball around, targeting nine different players, completing passes to eight.
• On his sixty-one-yard touchdown reception, Henry Ruggs reached 21.42 mph, which is the third-fastest speed in the NFL this season.
• Per Next Gen Stats, the Carr-to-Ruggs 61-yard touchdown pass had a completion probability of 21.6%, making it the eleventh most improbable touchdown pass of the season thus far.
• The Steelers gave Henry Ruggs an average cushion of 7.7 yards, which was the tenth-most in Week 2.
• Henry Ruggs’ 10.3 yards-after-catch per-reception was the fifth highest in Week 2, according to Next Gen Stats.
• Hunter Renfrow’s PFF receiving grade of 84.1 ranks seventh among Week 2 wide receivers. 
• After two weeks, Hunter Renfrow has forced four missed tackles, which is tied for second among WRs in the NFL.

Run Game Struggles

• Of backs with at least five carries, Kenyan Drake’s 1.8 yards per attempt was third worst.
• Similarly, Peyton Barber’s 2.5 yards per attempt was ninth worst.
• Peyton Barber did have 47 yards after contact against the Steelers’ stout run defense, which was seventh most in Week 2.
• Peyton Barber faced the highest percentage of 8-man boxes at 76.92 percent, per Next Gen Stats. 

Raiders Winning Despite Offensive Line

• Andre James was the only Raiders offensive lineman to earn a PFF grade above 50.0.
• Alex Leatherwood’s week-two PFF grade of 32.4 ranked third lowest among all offensive lineman and his two penalties were the most.
• Through two weeks, Alex Leatherwood leads all offensive lineman in penalties with four and sacks allowed with three.
• A bright spot in Week 2 was the pass-blocking efforts of Kolton Miller and Jermaine Eluemunor, who finished with PFF pass-blocking grades of 80.6 and 88.1 respectively.

Pass Rush Continues to Impress

• The Raiders pressured Ben Roethlisberger on 31.0% of his dropbacks, with Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue both generating 5+ pressures for the 2nd consecutive game, per Next Gen Stats. 
• After two sacks against the Steelers, former third-overall pick Solomon Thomas is one sack away from tying his career-high season-long sack total of three. 
• Through two weeks, Maxx Crosby has the most pressures in the NFL, with 19.

Secondary Also Impresses

• Through two weeks, Casey Heyward is PFF’s number-one rated CB. Not bad for a player with the 53rd-highest cap hit at his position this season.
• In Week 2, Nate Hobbs had the fourth-best PFF rating among rookie defenders and only surrendered 6.3 yards per reception.
• With 12:14 remaining in the fourth quarter, Jonathan Abram made a great hustle play, running 54.4 yards to tackle Chase Claypool, which is currently the sixth-longest yards traveled to make a tackle, according to Next Gen Stats.

Looking Ahead

• The Raiders opened as 5.5 favorites over the Dolphins — a large swing from the preseason line, which had the Dolphins favored by 1.

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson