Both the Raiders and this column took it on the chin last week. The loss — and associated wagers — plunged the recommended-wager record to .500.
But it’s a long season, our futures bets are looking good and there are several bets I like against the Bears this week.
Onward we go, starting with the point spread.
Point Spread: Bears (+5.5) at Raiders
A large majority of the money is on the Raiders, with 72% of the tickets and 82% of the cash wagered on the Raiders to cover.
Although you’d be avoiding the key number of 6, there are plenty of reason to lay off this one: the turmoil on the Raiders offensive line, Justin Fields’ growing comfort with Bill Lazor calling the plays and, of course, Jon Gruden’s off-the-field controversy.
Add it up and that’s too many points to lay.
Wager: Pass
Point Total: Over/Under 44.5
This total is 45 at most sportsbooks, but FanDuel has it at 44.5, making it the third-lowest total of the week.
Despite this low total, 90% of the cash is wagered on the under. That said, I like the over. PFF’s Greenline tool pegs the total at 46.2, which seems more accurate, based on both team’s passing games.
The Raiders are hurting at cornerback and in Justin Fields’ first game with Bill Lazor calling plays, he pushed the ball down the field with an ADOT of 13.6. Meanwhile, the Raiders run-blocking is nonexistent, so Derek Carr may be forced to do the same.
I think the passing attacks will push the final score into the 28-24 range and, therefore, like the over.
Wager: 1 unit
Player Props
With the running game struggling — and Peyton Barber and Josh Jacobs banged up — I like some overs in the passing game this week and Derek Carr to use his feet.
Derek Carr Over Passing Yards
Line: 278.5
Projection*: 286.4
Book: Draft Kings
Bet: Over (-115)
Notes: Jared Goff threw for 299 last week against the Bears. Meanwhile, Carr has topped 278.5 in 3 of 4 games.
Wager: 1 unit
Derek Carr Over Rushing Yards
Line: 5.5
Projection*: 7.1
Book: Draft Kings
Bet: Over (-120)
Notes: Derek Carr has cleared this total in three of the four games this year and ran 3 times for 8 yards in his 2019 game against Chicago.
Wager: 1 unit
Henry Ruggs Over Receiving Yards
Line: 46.5
Projection*: 59.8
Book: Draft Kings (-120)
Bet: Over
Notes: Ruggs is averaging 74.25 yards per game, has only gone under 46.5 once (with 46 exactly) and has eclipsed his over/under yardage total every week.
Wager: 1 unit
*Average of projections by Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Pros rounded to the hundredth.
2021 Recommended-Wager Record: 5-5
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson