Week 6: Raiders at Broncos Bets and Predictions

How will the Raiders perform in their first game with Rich Bisaccia at the helm?

That’s the million-dollar rhetorical question for Raider fans and the one-unit betting question for gamblers.

Recent history suggests they might be better.

When FiveThirtyEight looked at the success of interim head coaches over the last five years, they found that teams performed better under their interim coach:

Of course, this coaching change is different than those in recent history. Jon Gruden was fired for an off-the-field scandal not performance. That distinction makes this situation unique and extremely difficult to predict. But predict we shall.

Point Spread: Raider (+4) at Broncos

This game opened at Raiders +3 and has moved a full point toward the Broncos, for obvious reasons.

That line movement has not dissuaded the public from betting on Denver: 91% of the moneyline and 66% of the spread cash is on the Broncos.

Therefore, if you think the Raiders will play inspired football under Bisaccia, they’re a value. To predict that, however, would require being not just a football prognosticator but **** near clairvoyant.

Wager: Pass

Point Total: Over/Under 43.5

The total last week against the Bears was similarly low. I loved it, I bet it and… didn’t come close to winning it.

Let’s hope second time is the charm because I also love this one. It’s the second-lowest total this week and both Raider-Bronco games from last season comfortably cleared this total.

PFF Greenline pegs the total a point higher at 44.5 and 93% of the cash is on the over, so I’m not alone in that love.

Wager: 1 unit

Player Props

Hunter Renfrow Over Receptions
Projection*: 4.7
Book: PointsBet
Bet: Over (-150)
Notes: Renfrow has topped 4.5 receptions every week this season. He’s also topped his reception prop line each week this season. Let’s hope history continues to repeat.
Wager: 1 unit

Javonte Williams Over Carries
Projection*: 11.3
Book: BetRivers
Bet: Over (-114)
Notes: Melvin Gordon is questionable and the best Raider run defender, Jonathan Hankins, is doubtful. Therefore there’s a good chance Williams tops this number even with Gordon playing, making this a solid play.
Wager: 1 unit

Bryan Edwards Under Receptions
Projection*: 2.3
Book: Draft Kings
Bet: Under (+105)
Notes: Edwards had two catches last week and one the week before that. Meanwhile, according to NextGen Stats he’s generating the fifth-smallest average separation among WRs in the NFL. At plus-money, I like this bet a lot.
Wager: 1 unit

Next Permanent Raiders Head Coach

With the turnover at head coach, a new futures bet has emerged: next Raiders head coach. Below are the top ten candidates — in order from most likely to least likely — according to Bet Rivers:

Brian Daboll+700
Eric Bienemy+800
Rich Bisaccia+800
Kellen Moore+800
Joe Brady+900
Todd Bowles+1000
Doug Pederson+1100
Matt Campbell+1200
Matt Eberflus+1600
Byron Leftwich+1600

If you read my coaching-candidate column, you know I think Joe Brady is the right man for the job.

If I were to bet this, however, I’d throw a few bucks at Byron Leftwich and his +1600 odds. If very long odds are your thing, Lincoln Riley is +2500 and David Shaw is +3300.

But before we find out the permanent head coach, Rich Bisaccia gets to audition for the job. A win gives the Raiders a 61% chance at the playoffs, according to The Upshot, whereas a loss lowers those odds to 35%.

Hard to imagine a higher-stakes first audition than the one Bisaccia faces.

2021 Recommended-Wager Record: 7-7

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson