Do the Raiders currently hold the 2nd-overall pick in the draft or the 3rd-overall pick in the draft?
Depending on the model you follow, there seems to be conflicting information on their draft pick if the season ended today. The discrepancy lies in the strength of schedule and how it is being applied.
Technically, neither model is incorrect.
Based on the Raiders record right now, they are ahead of the Jaguars in terms of strength of schedule, which gives them the higher pick if the NFL played a 12-week season.
The other popular draft model can be found at Tankathon.com, and they show Las Vegas having the third pick if the season ended today.
The difference in the models is their strength of schedule (SOS) valuations.
Tankathon calculates strength of schedule based on the entire 17-game schedule. Some other models (like the one above) only take into account the SOS of games played to the current point in the season.
So far, the Raiders have a weaker strength of schedule than the Jaguars, but that’s going to change soon. In their final six games, the Jaguars face four teams, including the Raiders, with three wins or less on the season.
If the Jets, Giants and Raiders lose the rest of their games (which is impossible considering the Raiders play the Jaguars), Jacksonville will draft ahead of Las Vegas.
The remaining teams on the Vegas schedule have a winning percentage of .514 and that’s a higher winning percentage than the remaining opponents on the schedule for the Jaguars (.333) and Giants (.500).
If you’re rooting for the Raiders to get the top pick in the draft, they most likely won’t hold the tiebreaker with anyone. That means the Raiders and Jaguars have a huge game tabbed for December 22 at Allegiant Stadium.
The loser of that game could be the big winner when the draft rolls around.
x: @raidersbeat
It’s a bunch of BS, every time the Raiders have the same record as another team the other team gets to pick before the Raiders every time it’s BS!