The draft, and draft-related discussion, is a funny thing.
Watching folks convey opinions, argue opinions; good takes, bad takes, and everything in between. People willing to die on the oddest hills (this is the Josh Allen alley-oop), all the the anonymous reporting and rumors, the trades, potential trades, and just the general idea that nobody really has any clue what’s going to unfold. It’s such a wonderful process.
I don’t watch nearly as much “tape” as other’s. In fact, I’m probably well-below the consensus, whatever that may be. If I make it to or around 100 players, I’m ready to tap out. That’s what happened this year.
This is all for fun, for me personally, after all. The most interesting aspect of this whole “prospect evaluation” thing is planting your flag (while, coincidentally, attempting not to die on any hills) and watching how things unfold over the next few years. Inevitably, there will be misses. A lot of misses. This isn’t an exact science and as it turns out, drafting is really hard.
Whether you favor athleticism over other traits, find yourself looking for the immensely talented prospect with loads of character concerns that could be a “steal”, enjoy searching for the next small school stud, or think you’ve caught on to how your favorite team’s front office tends to draft, all these variables and storylines simply add to the excitement that surrounds the “wait and see” part of the draft.
Below you’ll be able to read my list of the top 100 players for the 2018 NFL Draft. I’m sure you’ll agree with nearly every single one of my rankings, if not all of them.
Please be nice and let’s have some fun. I hope your favorite team doesn’t make a really bad pick on Thursday evening.
“Blue Chip” Players:
I only counted five this year. That’s par for the course.
Saquon Barkley is potential franchise-changer. Positional value matters, but I’m not sure I’d care enough. The kid is a star. I’d take him at one overall. That’s the hill I’m dying on (surprise).
Derwin James is the best defender in the class and a culture-changer.
Roquan Smith could have an early Debo Jones-like return on investment. He’s better than the Alabama prospect from last year. Looks and plays like “today’s linebacker”.
Quenton Nelson is Bane; this year’s “can’t miss, generational talent” on the offensive line (it may actually hit this time around).
Rounding out the five, not quite the athlete that the Florida State safety is, but his versatility is similar and intangibles are off-the-charts. Minkah Fitzpatrick was referred to as “Coach Saban’s son“, which is really all I need to hear. A maniacal perfectionist who loves football.
“Elite” Players:
The next tier down; early-impact players with obvious Pro Bowl (or beyond) potential who will become core players for their respective teams.
Denzel Ward is in between Gareon Conley and Marshon Lattimore, grade/talent-wise. True lockdown potential on the outside, 185-pounds and all.
Bradley Chubb is this year’s premiere pass rusher. Silly-productive at school. Tested well in Indianapolis.
Maurice Hurst was sent home early from the Combine with questions surrounding his heart. Later cleared at his pro day, he remains the best interior player along the defensive line for 2018.
The gap between Derrius Guice and Saquon Barkley is there, but perhaps not as wide as many would think. Receiving ability obviously separates them, and they win in different ways as runners. Guice, like Barkley, can be a centerpiece on offense. He plays angry. I enjoy that. More thoughts here.
Much like the top two runners, the difference between Harold Landry and Bradley Chubb is open for debate. When healthy, Landry’s an absolute force with ridiculous bend.
Lamar Jackson is as close as we’ll get to Video Game Vick (and, per Mike himself, Lamar’s even better coming out of school).
“Round 1” Players:
I gave out 28 first-round grades this year. That felt like a lot, and it probably is compared to other folks. These players obviously standout above the rest of the class.
Baker Mayfield just missed the “elite” cut for me. It’s really close, and I think there’s an argument to be made about Bake as the QB1. Seen Russy Wilson as well as (smaller) Brett Favre comparisons.
Isaiah Wynn can play either guard or tackle at the next level, despite the size. The next Gabe Jackson?
Josh Rosen and his “millennial attitude” might rub front offices the wrong way. He has a legitimate argument as the best quarterback prospect in this year’s class. Stock is red hot after this reply.
Nick Chubb‘s hands are in question. They looked natural to me in 2014, pre-injury. He’s a plus-athlete with true, three-down capabilities.
Isaiah Oliver‘s ceiling might be the highest of any corner in this year’s class.
Rashaan Evans didn’t test nearly as well as the Boise State linebacker, but Evans is an ascending prospect himself, and tough as nails through traffic.
“Round 1-2” Players:
D.J. Moore is the WR1, and the only player at his position that I’d consider in the top 32.
Rashaad Penny rounds out the Day 1 runners. He checks nearly every box. While the one season of production scares some folks off, it wouldn’t surprise if he’s a more successful pro than any of the names that I’ve ranked before him.
The two top tackles, Connor Williams and Mike McGlinchey, are fringe-first rounders in an underwhelming group as a whole.
“Round 2” Players:
Biggest surprise here may be Jerome Baker over Leighton Vander Esch. I think there’s an argument to be made, size and all, for Baker playing tougher, more consistently?
Carlton Davis excels in press; checks the size/length boxes as well.
Courtland Sutton boosted his stock and/or put a lot of questions to bed with his performance at the Combine. I think there’s a Demaryius Thomas comparison floating out there somewhere?
“Round 2-3” Players:
This is where we get a bit log-jammed, and where we see the wide receiver run take place. Equanimeous St. Brown‘s upside rivals that of D.J. Moore. Strong athlete who flashes some A.J. Green in his game. Stock was doing a nosedive in college due to level of quarterback play.
Christian Kirk is one of the higher-character kids in the entire class, and can affect the game on special teams. Routes are clean.
John Kelly isn’t the athlete many want in a back, but his game translates. I love him.
Ronald Jones in the 2nd or 3rd round may come as a surprise to many. I think he’s another back with receiving questions. Can he get at and maintain weight around 210 lbs. for Sunday’s?
Tarvarius Moore and Dane Cruikshank both turned in stellar testing numbers. The latter may see a transition to cornerback sooner rather than later.
“Round 3” Players:
Arden Key was once considered a top 5 or 10 lock. Character and off-field concerns, coupled with lackluster 2017 production, have him sitting here.
Jaylen Samules is a running back for me, and a tight end for others. I just want him with the football in his hands more often than not.
Speaking of character concerns, Jordan Whitehead‘s stock also took a hit after he was suspended at the start of last season. One of the more natural players in space; talent is there.
This is the right round for this year’s version of Bruce Campbell in Kolton Miller (not the top 10, or even top 32).
“Round 3-4” Players:
Calvin Ridley‘s combination of age and questionable athleticism concern me. Still, the tape is hard to ignore. This ranking will upset plenty of people.
Mark Walton is a name I don’t think anyone is touting in the top 100. Arguably the draft’s best running back in pass protection, also with capable hands, and is one of the better change-of-direction players I’ve watched this year. Poor Combine and all, I’m still in.
“Round 4” Players:
If Jack Cichy could stay healthy for even just one season, he’d be a top 32 pick and a top three linebacker at worst.
Justin Watson has the production and athleticism we look for in wide receivers. If he played in the FBS, he’d be selected on Day 2.
Catch me on Twitter: @StillRyanFive
Finally a list that gives Lamar Jackson and Rashaad Penny the ranking they deserve. I understand it with Penny, as he’s in a small program on the West Coast, don’t with Jackson. I find the praise lavished on Darnold weird. He’s at USC, has a great cast around him, and still was a bonehead (and boring besides). Rosen had a less stellar supporting cast and did better. Hope the Raiders find someone to protect Carr while in every other pick they’re drafting defense. I want another edge rusher but know this draft is somewhat weak there…
you dont even have ridley listed
I love that you’ve ranked Jackson and Mayfield above the suspiciously (and imo unjustifiably) overrated Sam Darnold; both of these QBs have genuine marquis potential whereas the remainder look a whole lot like a gaggle of overvalued Ryan Leafs.
As far as the Raiders at #10 are concerned, they desperately need to add a perennial Pro Bowl interior DL as essentially every other perceived (and entirely too often overprioritized) area of defensive “weakness” would immediately improve with some genuine interior pocket pressure. While Eddie Vanderdoes showed some real (albeit inconsistent) promise as a rookie DL in the interior, his late-season ACL injury was clearly more serious than originally diagnosed and he unfortunately appears to be more of a non-factor in 2018 with each passing day. As such, the Raiders have to seriously consider drafting the best available IDL at #10 and while you’ve definitively ranked Maurice Hurst as that player based on his superlative skill set, I have to admit that his heart condition scares the hell out of me, not only for the obvious practical risk factor of a condition substantial and sufficiently evident enough to get him sent home from the combine, but also from a more ethereal, fate-tempting standpoint as the selection eerily echoes that of ultimate draft bust DB D.J. Hayden. For this reason, I’ve long been an advocate of Vita Vea at #10 and am more than a little shocked by the disparity of the two player’s respective rankings on this list (Hurst at #8 and Vea at #22) Not only is this easily the lowest that I’ve seen Vea ranked on any prospect list, I have enormous difficulty swallowing the assertion that Vita Vea (notwithstanding his health issues) is actually that much worse than Hurst to the point where you saw fit to rank him 14 spots below his Michigan counterpart. While Hurst is slightly more experienced & inherently more “refined” based on the fact that he’s a college senior (Vea declared for this year’s draft as a junior), that is hardly substantive justification for such a dramatic disparity in overall ranking, particularly with arguably less talented or pro-ready prospects (position notwithstanding) such as Wynn, Daniels, Oliver, Evans and Alexander ranked above Vea.
My question therefore is fairly simple and stems from the absence of any player analysis whatsoever either clarifying or justifying Vea’s comparatively low ranking in your article:
“What is so wrong with Vita Vea that you elected to rank him at #22 overall well below Maurice Hurst with a heart condition?”
Finally, while many are understandably stoked at the prospect of the Raiders drafting Roquan Smith at #10, I don’t see Reggie McKenzie suddenly departing from his long-standing aversion for drafting linebackers with an early pick (particularly in the top 10 of the 1st round in a reasonably deep draft class). Furthermore, the critical need at IDL is empirically greater and longer-standing than that of middle linebacker and by using such a valuable pick (one with which Reggie McKenzie pretty much has to hit a home run following a pair of uninspiring and largely unsuccessful drafts in order to preserve his current status within the Raiders administration) on a linebacker (even one as admittedly gifted as Smith who’s drawn early comparisons to Luke Kuechly….assuming Roquan is still on the board at #10 as the 49ers will likely snatch him up at #9 if he isn’t gone already (who’s idiotic idea was it to let Rod Woodson flip that coin anyway?)), they’ll miss out on a golden opportunity to successfully address a critical & widely impactful area of need on defense with a potential game-changer. With Navarro Bowman still unsigned (and still a very real consideration as the Raiders appear to be either his destination of choice or the only team willing to come anywhere near meeting his current salary demands), Mckenzie is in a position to fill the existing hole at linebacker with a veteran presence who dramatically improved the play at the position both against the run and in short to mid-range pass coverage (ie. covering tight ends, the Achilles Heel of the Raiders’ pass defense) following his release by the 49ers at the mid-point of the 2017 season) while utilizing the #10 pick to fill a second and far more gaping hole in the interior defensive line.
Imo, taking Vita Vea at #10 would be hitting it out of the park!
I love that you’ve ranked Jackson and Mayfield above the suspiciously (and imo unjustifiably) overrated Sam Darnold; both of these QBs have genuine marquis potential whereas the remainder look a whole lot like a gaggle of overvalued Ryan Leafs.
As far as the Raiders at #10 are concerned, they desperately need to add a perennial Pro Bowl interior DL as essentially every other perceived (and entirely too often overprioritized) area of defensive “weakness” would immediately improve with some genuine interior pocket pressure. While Eddie Vanderdoes showed some real (albeit inconsistent) promise as a rookie DL in the interior, his late-season ACL injury was clearly more serious than originally diagnosed and he unfortunately appears to be more of a non-factor in 2018 with each passing day. As such, the Raiders have to seriously consider drafting the best available IDL at #10 and while you’ve definitively ranked Maurice Hurst as that player based on his superlative skill set, I have to admit that his heart condition scares the hell out of me, not only for the obvious practical risk factor of a condition substantial and sufficiently evident enough to get him sent home from the combine, but also from a more ethereal, fate-tempting standpoint as the selection eerily echoes that of ultimate draft bust DB D.J. Hayden. For this reason, I’ve long been an advocate of Vita Vea at #10 and am more than a little shocked by the disparity of the two player’s respective rankings on this list (Hurst at #8 and Vea at #22) Not only is this easily the lowest that I’ve seen Vea ranked on any prospect list, I have enormous difficulty swallowing the assertion that Vita Vea (notwithstanding his health issues) is actually that much worse than Hurst to the point where you saw fit to rank him 14 spots below his Michigan counterpart. While Hurst is slightly more experienced & inherently more “refined” based on the fact that he’s a college senior (Vea declared for this year’s draft as a junior), that is hardly substantive justification for such a dramatic disparity in overall ranking, particularly with arguably less talented or pro-ready prospects (position notwithstanding) such as Wynn, Daniels, Oliver, Evans and Alexander ranked above Vea.
My question therefore is fairly simple and stems from the absence of any player analysis whatsoever either clarifying or justifying Vea’s comparatively low ranking in your article:
“What is so wrong with Vita Vea that you elected to rank him at #22 overall well below Maurice Hurst with a heart condition?”
Finally, while many are understandably stoked at the prospect of the Raiders drafting Roquan Smith at #10, I don’t see Reggie McKenzie suddenly departing from his long-standing aversion for drafting linebackers with an early pick (particularly in the top 10 of the 1st round in a reasonably deep draft class). Furthermore, the critical need at IDL is empirically greater and longer-standing than that of middle linebacker and by using such a valuable pick (one with which Reggie McKenzie pretty much has to hit a home run following a pair of uninspiring and largely unsuccessful drafts in order to preserve his current status within the Raiders administration) on a linebacker (even one as admittedly gifted as Smith who’s drawn early comparisons to Luke Kuechly….assuming Roquan is still on the board at #10 as the 49ers will likely snatch him up at #9 if he isn’t gone already (who’s idiotic idea was it to let Rod Woodson flip that coin anyway?)), they’ll miss out on a golden opportunity to successfully address a critical & widely impactful area of need on defense with a potential game-changer. With Navarro Bowman still unsigned (and still a very real consideration as the Raiders appear to be either his destination of choice or the only team willing to come anywhere near meeting his current salary demands), Mckenzie is in a position to fill the existing hole at linebacker with a veteran presence who dramatically improved the play at the position both against the run and in short to mid-range pass coverage (ie. covering tight ends, the Achilles Heel of the Raiders’ pass defense) following his release by the 49ers at the mid-point of the 2017 season) while utilizing the #10 pick to fill a second and far more gaping hole in the interior defensive line.
Imo, taking Vita Vea at #10 would be hitting it out of the park!
You posted that long *** speech TWICE?!? What a pretentious windbag.