The Raiders are hot right now, but the NFL oddsmakers still like the Buccaneers this week – assuming, of course, that the game isn’t postponed due to recent COVID-19 issues in the Raiders locker room. Tampa Bay opened up as -2.5 point road favorites over the Raiders, but the spread has now moved to -4, according to Sports Betting Dime.
Some betting trends to know for this game are that the Raiders are 7-2 ATS (against the spread) in their last 7 games and the total has gone over in every Raider game this season. The over is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 games and 4-0-1 in the Raiders last five games. Both teams are putting up elite offensive numbers as Oddshark has the Over/Under at 53.5.
The Raiders calling card is a ball control offense but that hasn’t stopped them from averaging 30 points per game. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs have scored at least 28 points in 4 of their last 5 outings. The Buccaneers have the top defense in the NFL and love to blitz. With no Trent Brown (COVID-19) or Richie Incognito (Achilles) along the Raiders offensive line, look for Jon Gruden to be methodical in his approach. This could lead to long sustainable drives that include quick short passes and pounding the running game with Josh Jacobs. The Buccaneers are allowing a mere 64.3 Rushing YPG which won’t favor a Raiders running game that has been up and down, especially since losing Incognito.
The turnover battle could ultimately be the deciding factor in this game. The Bucs have forced 11 turnovers this season compared to just 3 for the Raiders. The Raiders rank bottom 5 in the NFL in turnover differential with -4. Tom Brady historically is amongst the league leaders in fewest interceptions but in a Bruce Arians offense that prefers to air it out there should be plenty of opportunities for the Raiders secondary to make plays.
On paper, this matchup might favor the Bucs, but the Raiders defense was able to pressure Patrick Mahomes consistently, so they’ll hope to keep that momentum against a far less mobile quarterback in Brady. While the line of 2.5 seems generous for Bucs bettors, don’t discount a Raiders team that already has wins against two heavy-favorite Super Bowl contenders (Kansas City and New Orleans).
twitter: @PaulSolvs
twitter: @raidersbeat