The Las Vegas Raiders enter the 2025 NFL season facing a familiar narrative. Analysts, sportsbooks, and even many fans consider them outsiders in a loaded AFC. On the surface, the numbers don’t look encouraging: +300 to make the playoffs, +10,000 to win the Super Bowl, and a projected win total of 6.5. For most bettors, that looks like a stay-away. However, sometimes the most interesting stories in football begin with odds like these.
The NFL thrives on unpredictability. Every year, teams written off in August play meaningful games in December. Could the Raiders be that team in 2025? The odds suggest otherwise, but when you look deeper, there are paths that make this scenario less far-fetched than it seems.
The Raiders’ Current Betting Landscape
Across the major sportsbooks recommended by Gambling.com, the picture is consistent. The Raiders are one of the longest shots in the league. FanDuel and BetMGM put their playoff odds between +300 and +330, with “miss playoffs” set around -375. Division odds are +1,700 to +2,200, trailing Kansas City and Los Angeles. To win the AFC, they’re around +5,000. And for the Super Bowl, they hover between +10,000 and +15,000 depending on the book. Those futures markets highlight how little faith the betting world has in Las Vegas.
Then there’s the over/under win total: 6.5. The Over is priced at –150 to –165, while the Under comes in at +125 to +140. Oddsmakers expect modest improvement, but not enough to contend. Still, these numbers are not absolute truths. They’re reflections of consensus opinion—and the NFL has a way of humbling consensus.
Defense could be the Raiders’ foundation
If the Raiders are to outperform expectations, defense will lead the way. Maxx Crosby remains one of the premier edge rushers in the NFL, a disruptive force capable of single-handedly tilting games. Around him, the Raiders have quietly built a deeper unit. Improvements in the secondary and a greater emphasis on forcing turnovers give them the tools to frustrate high-powered offenses. In an AFC stacked with quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow, that kind of defense isn’t optional—it’s survival.
Last season, Las Vegas stayed competitive in multiple one-score games but often fell short. If the defense can finish drives, turn pressures into sacks, and convert turnovers into points, that narrow margin could flip in their favor.
Offensive potential and questions
On offense, uncertainty lingers with the passing game having to find stability. With Pete Carroll now guiding the team, and Geno Smith reuniting with his former coach, there’s hope for steadier quarterback play. Smith may not be elite, but he is experienced, and that matters when the goal is to avoid costly mistakes.
Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty brings burst and versatility to the backfield. If he adapts quickly, he could form a reliable tandem that balances the offense. For a team not expected to win shootouts, efficiency matters more than fireworks. Sustained drives, field position battles, and limiting turnovers could be the formula that keeps Las Vegas competitive week after week.
Is there really betting value in the Raiders’ long odds?
Here’s where the betting angle becomes compelling. Everyone knows the Raiders are long shots. But that perception alone creates opportunities. A playoff ticket at +300 is far more realistic than a Super Bowl bet at +10,000, but both exist in the same market. If Las Vegas can hover around .500 by midseason, those long odds will shrink quickly, meaning early bettors could benefit from strong closing-line value.
On Gambling.com, tracking these shifts on a weekly basis provides a clearer sense of how undervalued teams can offer profit potential. Bettors who look beyond the preseason narrative may find the Raiders worth a speculative wager, not because they are likely to succeed, but because their odds may not fully reflect their potential ceiling.
It’s not impossible…
History is filled with long shots turning the tables. In 2022, the Jaguars stormed from obscurity to the playoffs. In 2017, the Eagles went from underdogs to Super Bowl champions. The Raiders don’t need to be perfect; they need to stay in striking distance long enough for breaks to fall their way.
The AFC West is daunting, but divisional games tend to be tighter than expected. Las Vegas has a reputation for pushing the Chiefs harder than most. If they can steal even one win from Kansas City, split with the Chargers, and handle the Broncos, suddenly the math changes.
Closing Thoughts…
The Raiders aren’t built like favorites. They aren’t supposed to make the playoffs, and sportsbooks have been clear about that. But being underestimated can be powerful. With a strong defense, a steadier offense, and a few key upsets, Las Vegas could rewrite the season’s expectations.
For bettors, the story is less about whether the Raiders will win the Super Bowl and more about whether they can outperform their odds. On Gambling.com, those futures might look like a dismissal, but for anyone who believes in underdogs, they’re an invitation. In a league where chaos is the only constant, the Raiders might be the next team to defy the odds.