If They Win Out, Raiders Have 88 Percent Odds of Making the Playoffs

After Sunday’s embarrassing loss to the Colts, are the Raiders playoff chances all but over?

Actually, they are not.

It would have helped to get a Browns win on Monday, but the Raiders can still move into a wild card spot by winning their final three games – all of which should be winnable games.

According to The Upshot (an odds calculator on the New York Times website), the Raiders actually have an 88% chance of making the playoffs if they win their final three games of the regular season.

Here are the Raiders’ simplest paths to the playoffs, assuming of course that they can close out the year by beating the Chargers, Dolphins, and Broncos.

A Baltimore loss in the next three weeks

The Raiders hold every tiebreaker with the Ravens (8-5) if both teams finish the year with a 10-6 record. The Ravens play the Jaguars, Giants, and Bengals to close out the year. That is a relatively easy schedule, but it’s worth pointing out that the Jaguars have come within four points of beating the Packers, Browns, Texans, and Vikings over the past six weeks. The Giants are fighting to win the NFC East and have won four of their last five games.

The Bengals just stink.

The Browns lose two of their next three games

The Browns looked like a lock to make the playoffs at 9-3, but suddenly they are 9-4 with games coming against the Giants, Jets, and Steelers. Two of those games are very losable for the Browns and maybe the Jets will be motivated to put up a fight in their final home game of the year.

The Jets can’t really go 0-16 can they?

The Titans lose two of their next three games and the Colts win two of their next three

This scenario seems complicated, but it definitely could happen. The Titans still have games remaining against the Lions, Packers, and Texans, while the Colts have the Texans, Steelers, and Jaguars.

First things first… the Raiders need to beat the Chargers at home on Thursday. Lose that game and the season is essentially over for the Raiders.

twitter: @raidersbeat


1 thought on “If They Win Out, Raiders Have 88 Percent Odds of Making the Playoffs

  1. Four year, four losing seasons times 10 million dollars per year to the head coach equals 40 million dollars lost and four losing seasons. Do we really need a fifth season of that to figure out that this isn’t working? Eric Bieniemy of the Kansas City Chiefs, Mike Kafka of the Kansas City Chiefs, Aaron Glenn of the New Orleans Saints, Tony Elliott of Clemson and Teryl Austin of the Pittsburgh Steelers all have extensive resumes’, have paid their dues and does anyone, other than me, remember some former defensive backs coach, on Tony Dungy’s and Jon Gruden’s staff in Tampa, who went on to become the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers? My point? THERE ARE viable candidates who ARE capable of coming in and resurrecting this Las Vegas Raiders franchise and possibly for less than 10 million a year?

    On September 23, 2019 I wrote;
    Since Derek Carr will be living next door to Jon Gruden, when the Raiders relocate to Las Vegas in 2020, maybe they can carpool together and pick up Paul Guenther and Mike Mayock on the way. Hopefully, their destination will be 6330 West Charleston Boulevard. That is the address of the Las Vegas Unemployment Office. Surely whoever is driving will have that Chuckie effigy, from a horror movie, hanging (literally) from the rear view mirror.

    Well, one down and three to go or as Ed Graney of the Las Vegas Review-Journal said in his December 14, 2020 article entitled:

    Guenther’s the fall guy but shares blame with Raiders management

    1. “…It’s never about one man, one area. Just as Guenther is hardly the lone reason for shoddy defensive play,”

    2. “…More than anything, to this point, firing Guenther speaks to a failure in evaluation by Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock.

    3. “…Someone eventually pays for substandard results, and it certainly wasn’t going to be the offensive-minded head coach who signed a 10-year contract.”

    4. “…“We like our young team, I want to reiterate that,” Gruden said. “We do have some veteran players that we’re excited about. We have to put it all together. And it goes on me right now to get that done. It’s my responsibility. Everything is. Head coach is just that. Head coach of offense, defense, special teams. ”

    5. “…Guenther is gone and that’s hardly a surprise. He didn’t do a good enough job to keep his. But moves like these most often illuminate a much bigger picture. And within this particular frame is a more obvious need for better evaluation of talent. That’s not on Guenther. That’s on his bosses.

    Oh well, on to year five of more substandard play, talent and coaching. At least the Las Vegas Knights and Las Vegas Aces will be entertaining to watch.

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