The average NFL game has 120+ plays. Each week, this column will highlight the five plays that most affected the outcome of each game: The Pivotal Five.
To rank these plays, we’ll be using two metrics:
- Expected Points Added (EPA): “A measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation” is how The 33rd Team explains it.
To put it in game terms, imagine the Raiders face a 3rd and 10 midway through the fourth quarter. The Expected Points would be 0.5. If Derek Carr threw a touchdown pass — and Carlson made the extra point — the Raiders would instead score 7 points. Thus, the Expected Points Added from that play were 6.5. - Win Probability (WP): A team’s chances of winning the game at any given moment. This percentage can vary by statistician. For the purposes of this column, we’ll be using data from Ben Baldwin and his website: https://rbsdm.com/.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at the five Raiders/Steelers plays that affected Win Probability the most, in reverse order.
5. Derek Carr Strike to Hunter Renfrow on Third Down
The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 9, with 7:08 remaining in the 3rd quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 54%.
The Play: Derek Carr hits Hunter Renfrow for a 23-yard gain.
The Outcome: Renfrow’s impressive catch was good for 3.0 EPA and increased the Raiders win probability by 10 points.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 64%
4. Ben Roethlisberger Bomb to Chase Claypool
The Situation: The Steelers face a 2nd and 7, with 12:14 remaining in the 4th quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 79%
The Play: Ben Roethlisberger completes a 52-yard pass to Chase Claypool.
The Outcome: Roethlisberger’s heave and Claypool’s diving catch net the Steelers 52 yards, 3.8 EPA and lowers the Raiders win probability by 12 points.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 67%
3. Najee Harris Catch-and-Run Touchdown
The Situation: The Steelers face a 3rd and 10, with 11:23 left in the 4th quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 74%
The Play: Ben Roethlisberger throws a touchdown pass to Najee Harris.
The Outcome: Harris’ 25-yard scamper to the end zone is worth 3.9 EPA and lowers the Raiders win probability by 12 points.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 62%
2. Diontae Johnson Sideline Catch
The Situation: The Steelers face a 3rd and 8, with 7:33 left in the 2nd quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 56%
The Play: Diontae Johnson catches a 41-yard pass on the left sideline.
The Outcome: Johnson’s catch and run nets the Steelers 4.2 EPA. More importantly, it decreases the Raiders win probability by 13 points, making the Steelers the favorites at this point.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 43%
1. Derek Carr to Henry Ruggs to Ice the Game
The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 10, with 9:44 left in the 4th quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 61%
The Play: Henry Ruggs catches a pass deep over the middle and runs untouched to the end zone.
The Outcome: Ruggs’ touchdown is worth a game-high 6.5 EPA and increases the Raiders win probability by 23 points.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 84%
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
*Win probability data courtesy of rbsdm.com
**Highlights courtesy of NFL
