As the original host of Let’s Make a Deal, Monty Hall became famous for posing a simple question to contestants: Choose between one of three doors and receive the prize behind it.
This week — while no game show host will pose it — the Raiders face a similar question:
- Behind Door 1: Losses by the Colts and Steelers on Sunday afternoon, resulting in the prize of a playoff berth
- Behind Door 2: A win Sunday night over the Chargers with that same playoff-berth prize
- Behind Door 3: No playoffs, resulting in the immediate the search for a permanent head coach and the possible prize of Jim Harbaugh
Let’s examine all three doors in this week’s Raiders Stats and Storylines.
1. How Likely is That Playoff Prize?
Three weeks ago, the Raiders playoff odds sat at a measly 5%. Now they’re basically a coin flip, according to The Upshot, which pegs those odds at 51% entering Week 18. There are two non-tying (i.e. likely) scenarios to winning that coin flip:
As we’ll see below, a win against the Chargers isn’t just the outcome the Raiders control; it’s the most likely of the two.
2. Door Number 1: The Colts and Steelers Losing
Door Number 1 amounts to a long-shot two-leg parlay:
A $100 bet would payout more than ten fold, making it the kind of sucker’s bet that sportsbooks like to advertise and love to take action on. In other words, it’s extremely unlikely.
Since Door 1 is likely to shut at 4 pm ET, after the close of Sunday’s early games, let’s take a look at the ways the Raiders can win over the Chargers.
3. Bisaccia Must Maintain His Newfound Fourth-Down Aggression
In his twelve games at the helm, Rich Bisaccia has been the fifth-worst coach on fourth down, via rbsdm.com’s model, making the correct decision under 30% of the time.
In a pleasant — and possibly season-saving surprise — that changed against the Colts.
In a must-win game, Bisaccia was appropriately aggressive, making the correct decision over 60% of the time, which was fourth best in the NFL last week. Even more to Bisaccia’s credit, he ranked first among coaches who faced more than one such decision:
Best of all, Bisaccia was rewarded for his aggression, with the Raiders converting a fourth down for a touchdown:
A similarly aggressive approach would go a long way to beating a Chargers team helmed by one of the NFL’s most aggressive head coaches on fourth down.
4. Greg Olson Should Throw More on Second Down
Last week’s column took a look at Olson’s second-down playcalling — and how it exacerbates the team’s recurring third-down problems — but the issue was even worse against the Colts, so here we are again. Let’s break second downs into three categories: The goal, what works and what the Raiders do.
Second-Down Goal
As mentioned last week, Peyton Manning famously said “I’ve always thought third downs are converted, if you will, on first and second down.” Therefore a worthy and Peyton Manning-approved goal: Be so successful on second down that third downs are either easy or non-existent. In other words, call the plays the regularly work.
What Works on Second Down
For the Raiders on the season — and last week — what has worked is the passing game. While the Raiders run game was improved against the Colts, per rbsdm.com, it was nowhere near as good as the right arm of Derek Carr:
The Raiders passing attack generated an EPA of 0.495 — seventh best in Week 17 — whereas the EPA on run plays was -0.144 — twelfth worst in Week 17. It therefore shouldn’t require a rocket surgeon to deduce which option should be relied on more heavily.
What the Raiders Do on Second Down
Unfortunately, play-caller Greg Olson is no rocket surgeon. His M.O. all season has been to call run plays on second down, but it was never more striking than last week:
Yes, the Raiders won with this process. But I’d argue that the plethora of second-down runs were an impediment to that win, since they weren’t nearly as successful as the pass.
5. Embrace Al Davis’ Favorite: The Vertical Game
Speaking of the offense’s strength, it’s not just throwing the ball. It’s throwing the ball deep. And, per Ajay Patel, only two teams do it better on a percentage basis than the Raiders:
And, as luck would have it, per Sharp Football Stats, the Raiders face the seventh-worst defense at preventing chunk passing plays:
Ideally, the Raiders will have Darren Waller back and be able to take full advantage of this mismatch.
6. Pressure Justin Herbert
The Raiders pass rush has been a team strength all season, ranking sixth in PFF’s team pass-rush rankings and, per Seth Walder, having two of the top edge rushers in win rate:
Furthermore, despite the high double-team rate, Maxx Crosby’s individual effort has been phenomenal, leading the NFL in created pressures, per Arjun Menon:
PFF has found that pressures are a more repeatable stat than sacks, but perhaps Week 18 is the game that Crosby gets both in bunches.
7. Eliminate Penalties
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but penalties have been a major problem for the Raiders. In fact, heading into the final week of the season, only one team has lost more EPA to penalties than the Raiders, per Anthony Reinhard:
Don’t take just a chart’s word for it. As recently as last week, the Raiders had a potential 11-point swing due to one penalty:
Avoiding similar gaffes would go a long way to beating the Chargers.
8. Winning the Red Zone Battle
The red zone has been a problem for years and this season has been no different, on both sides of the ball:
| Stat | Raiders | Chargers |
| Offensive Red Zone TD Percentage | 29th | 8th |
| Defensive Red Zone TD Percentage | 32nd | 25th |
The Chargers have recent history on their side, but if the Raiders can reverse this trend, they could very well upset Los Angeles and enter the playoffs through Door Number 2.
9. Door Number 3: A New Coach?
A loss would simply expedite the question that’s been on the mind of many Raiders fans since Week 6: Should Rich Bisaccia be kept or replaced? More than 7k readers of this site have voiced their opinion:
I tend to agree with the majority. That said, only one man’s opinion truly counts. And if Bisaccia maintains his aggressive mindset, he could reel off a couple wins and make this a hard decision for Mark Davis.
10. The Raiders’ Monty Hall Problem
While initially famous for the show he hosted, Monty Hall’s true legacy is a probability puzzle named in his honor.
While not a paradox on the same level, the Raiders do face a predicament of their own. Would making the playoffs prohibit a needed coaching upgrade? Or, in other words, if Door Number 3 is a coach of Jim Harbaugh’s caliber would a fan or owner choose that over the playoffs?
Possibly so and the Harbaugh whispers and innuendo are already becoming louder:
One could argue that landing a coach like Harbaugh would be better for the team’s long-term goals, but it’s impossible to deny the allure of a potential post-season run. Regardless, next week, fans may have lots to be optimistic about, no matter the outcome of Sunday night’s game.
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
Very good analysis .
Makes a lot of sense and thorough!
That Kyle Brandt on “good morning football” is a Raider hating punk! Time to let him know Raider fans!
sounds like the raiders should treat their downs like monty hall problems, just saying.