Ashton Jeanty has carried the ball 88 times this season. None of them have ended in the end zone.
Jeanty has had a total of 7 carries from inside the 5-yard line this season. Of those 7 runs, 2 of them were for a loss of 2 yards.
The outlier on a list that most want to be on…
Being inside the 5-yard line is usually a good thing. Your team made it. You’re in the redzone and on the edge of a touchdown. But for Ashton Jeanty it’s been a nightmare.
This season, 12 players have 7 or more carries from inside the 5 through Week 5. Jeanty is the only one of the 12 who hasn’t scored.
Of the 12 players, Josh Allen is the one who stands out this week. He has the same amount of carries (7) from inside the 5 as Jeanty. What’s the difference? Allen has scored a touchdown on all 7 of them.
The Bills and their star QB show up at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday.
Week 2 at SoFi tells the tale…
The sequence that sums it up came in the 1st quarter against the Chargers. Las Vegas had 1st-and-goal from the 3, and Jeanty got the ball 4 straight times:
- 1st down: lost 2
- 2nd down: gained 3
- 3rd down: gained 1
- 4th-and-goal from the 1: no gain, turnover on downs
The first 3 downs of this sequence came with Kirk Cousins under center. On 4th down the Raiders took Cousins out of the play entirely and performed a direct snap to Jeanty, who was stopped cold. 6 of his 7 carries inside the 5 came from under-center. They attempted to line up and run it right at them, but the downhill rushing approach was blown up every time.
Something’s gotta give…
There’s a two edge sword with this Sunday’s matchup. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t exactly shutdown opposing teams from their own goal line either. Opponents have run 21 plays from inside the Bills’ 5 yard line and scored 11 touchdowns, 4 of them on the ground.
The Raiders’ defense has been just as generous, allowing 8 touchdowns on 15 plays from inside its own 5. That’s a 53.3% rate, a hair above Buffalo’s 52.4%, and that’s the side of the ball where Allen does his damage.
One of these goalline runs is going to break eventually, because no back this talented stays at zero rushing touchdowns forever. The Raiders just can’t afford to wait any longer with the Allen-led Bills on the other sideline.
Is it the Raiders O-line..?
Before we pile everything on Jeanty, look at what’s in front of him. 3 of his 7 carries inside the 5 were stopped at or behind the line. Across the whole season, the Raiders have been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on 32 of 125 designed runs, that’s a 25.6% rate that they are stuffed at or before the line. Only the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers get stopped more.
(A caveat that’s actually not so bad is, on 3rd or 4th down with 1-2 yards to go, they’ve converted 7 of 12, tied for 23rd in the league.)
The Raiders runs that have worked generally is when they go between the guards, at 4.0-4.4 yards per carry (YPC). Runs to the edges average 2.2-2.9 YPC. Why it’s not working in the redzone is the major question here.
Is he even healthy..?
Ashton Jeanty has obviously been dealing with an ankle injury dating back to preseason, but it doesn’t seem to be going away. If the injury is serious enough to report it each week, it could very well be a contributing factor to his lack of production.
Klint Kubiak after the Patriots loss on 10/11 said, “Yes. Ashton is beat up. And it’s a testament to how tough he is that he’s out there playing today for his teammates.”
Also postgame, Jeanty said, “Football is a tough game. You’re never going to play feeling 100 percent.” Then Kubiak turns around and says Wednesday that Jeanty is “starting to feel a lot better physically,” and he’s expected to play through the ankle and foot issues.
Whether it’s injury, offensive line performance or an overarching curse there’s got to be an answer eventually or the losses are going to continue to stack.
x: @raidersbeat
