Week 10: Chiefs at Raiders Wagers and Predictions

This game has a different feel to it: It’s primetime and both teams badly need a win to stay in the thick of the playoff hunt.

With a loss, both the Raiders and the Chiefs would fall below 50% in The Upshot’s playoff projections. Meanwhile, a win would do the opposite, putting each team above 60% in the same projections.

The country will be watching two rivals with a lot on the line. Let’s dig in.

Point Spread: Chiefs (-2.5) at Raiders

On paper, the Raiders may be the better team. In the sportsbook’s and public’s eyes, however, that’s not the case. The Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points and the public is buying, with 86% of the cash wagered on the Chiefs winning by 3 or more.

If the line were to move to +3.5, a case could be made for buying the Raiders. At its current +2.5, the better play, if you like the Raiders, would be the moneyline.

Following a loss to the lowly Giants with a win against the reigning AFC champs would be a very Raiders thing to do, but I’ll be wagering my money elsewhere on this game.

Wager: Pass

Point Total: Over/Under 52

The betting public is split on this line and so am I.

On one hand, it’s easy to envision a high-scoring affair, with Mahomes and Carr trading blows like they did last season en route to final totals of 66 and 72.

On the other hand, the Raiders pass defense is vastly improved from last season and both offenses are struggling of late. Furthermore, 4 of the last 5 Chiefs totals have gone under and the Raiders lone game without Henry Ruggs also went under.

Wager: Pass

Player Props

It was Falstaff who said “the better part of valor is discretion after pretending to be dead on the battlefield. The audience is supposed to take the cowardly character’s rationale as a joke, but I’m taking the advice seriously this week. First by passing on the over/under and spread bets and second by recommending two very safe prop bets.

Bryan Edwards Under Receptions
Projection: 2.5
Book: PointsBet
Bet: Under (-176)
Notes: At -176, you’re paying a high price for this bet, but PointsBet’s line is a full reception off the projection. The last time Edwards recorded 4 or more receptions was way back in Week 1. And it took overtime to do it.
Wager: 1 unit

Mecole Hardman Under Receptions
Line: 4.5
Projection: 3.8
Book: PointsBet
Bet: Under (-176)
Notes: Like above, these odds are not great, but the line is far off the projection. Hardman has gone under 4.5 receptions in three of his four last games and there’s no reason to expect that to not be the case here.
Wager: 1 unit

Despite both lines being heavily juiced to the under, they still represent values, with the first a 6.2% edge and the second a 12.9% edge.

2021 Recommended-Wager Record: 15-10

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson


2 thoughts on “Week 10: Chiefs at Raiders Wagers and Predictions

  1. Carr is a born looser at qb,when will the raiders realize that hopefully he get hurt tomarrow or even better hopefully his carrer ends tomarrow the back-up qb is a mvp canidate if you would actually play him

  2. I wouldn’t say Carr is a born (loser), it’s just that the Raiders suck every year no matter who the players are, no matter who the GM is, and no matter who the coaches are. And actually, no matter who the owner is and no matter where they move to. I remember when the Cleveland Browns used to be a team like that. And way before that, the New Orleans Saints used to suck every year. Now, it’s the Raiders turn to be the longtime losers. It’s going on twenty years now, with the exception of one year that turned out to be nothing more than an aberration, (as the playoffs that year divulged.) It’s like this: Hey, Las Vegas. You wanted them, you can have them. LOL.

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