The Bengals and Raiders both badly need a win in Week 11. In a competitive AFC playoff race, this game will greatly affect each team’s playoff odds:
Team | Playoff Odds* With Win | Playoff Odds* With Loss |
Raiders | 41% | 18% |
Bengals | 52% | 25% |
*Odds via The Upshot
With a lot on the line, let’s take a look at the available wagers and make some predictions.
Point Spread: Bengals (-1) at Raiders
The Bengals are a road favorite and the betting public is buying it, with 80% of the cash wagered on Cincinnati. And for good reason: The Bengals are coming off a bye week whereas the Raiders have struggled mightily since losing Henry Ruggs.
If you like the Raiders in this spot, the moneyline at +186 is a better value. I don’t see value on either side, however, and will be betting my money elsewhere.
Wager: Pass
Point Total: Over/Under 50.5
I expect a shootout in this one. Quarterbacks Derek Carr and Joe Burrow are numbers one and two in the NFL in yards thrown against the blitz. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow has carved up the Raiders preferred defense this season, completing “72.1% of his passes for 9.3 yards per pass attempt against Cover 3 this season,” per Rich Hribar.
I’m, however, in the minority in that expectation, as 98% of the cash has been wagered on the under. The prudent move would be to pass, but I will be placing half a unit on the over.
Wager: Over (0.5 unit)
Player Props
I’m perfect on props picks the last two weeks and hope to continue that momentum by going back to the Bryan Edwards well.
Bryan Edwards Under Receptions
Line: 3.5
Projection: 2.5
Book: PointsBet
Bet: Under (-171)
Notes: Another week, another Bryan Edwards under 3.5 receptions bet. He continues to get little separation, few targets and hasn’t cleared 3.5 receptions since Week 1.
Wager: 1 unit
Darren Waller Over Receptions
Line: 6.5
Projection: 6.1
Book: FanDuel
Bet: Over (+106)
Notes: This is a bet on logic prevailing. The Raiders desperately need to get Waller more involved and we get plus money betting they’ll do just that.
Wager: 1 unit
2021 Recommended-Wager Record: 17-10
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
The (Masque)Raiders lose again. The Raiders’ “Carr” needs an oil change, desperately. Only one target to wide receivers all game. Goodbye Greg Olsen, his play calling sucks. The Las Vegas dysfunctionals have to go. Marcus Mariota should start the rest of the season. Package draft picks and trade Carr for DeShaun Watson right away.
Horrible organization = horrible team! My buddy, a Cowboys fan, bought tickets to the Thanksgiving game, but I don’t even feel like viewing the Raiders sh!tshow.