Week 14: Raiders at Chiefs Wagers and Predictions

Unlike the Raiders, this column is on a hot streak, winning both bets last week to improve the season-long betting record to 21-11.

This week, we’ll try to keep the momentum going by being conservative with the game bets and aggressive with the player props.

Let’s take a look.

Point Spread: Raiders (+10) at Chiefs

Ten points is a big number. In fact, that margin makes this game the third-largest point spread of the week. But it’s probably not too big. Four weeks ago, the Raiders lost by 27 to the Chiefs at home and with Darren Waller playing. Whereas this weekend they will be at Arrowhead and without their star tight end. Not exactly the recipe you want to improve an outcome.

That said, ten points does leave room for a backdoor cover, so there’s not much value, in my opinion, on either side of this line. Therefore, let’s save our money for a better bet.

Wager: Pass

Point Total: Over/Under 48

On its face, this total seems low. Especially when looking at the final totals of the last three Chiefs/Raiders games:

• Week 5, 2020: 72 total points
• Week 11, 2020: 66 total points
• Week 10, 2021: 55 total points

Recent history, however, suggests a lower-scoring game this week. In the last five games, the Chiefs defense has been stingy, allowing an average of 11.2 points per game. Meanwhile, the Raiders have fallen into an offensive rut, only topping 20 points once in their last five games.

Which side do you bet when you have conflicting trends? Neither.

Wager: Pass

Player Props

Once again, the best wagers are in the player prop department, starting with one we bet and won last week.

Hunter Renfrow Over 6.5 Receptions | +115 | FOX Bet

The over has hit on Hunter Renfrow’s reception total 10 out of 12 weeks this season. That alone is an achievement, but he’s been an especially safe bet since Darren Waller got hurt in the first half of the Dallas game. In that game and the Washington contest that followed it, Renfrow has been Carr’s #1 target, racking up targets and turning them into receptions at a high rate:

Week	Targets	Receptions
12	9	8
13	10	9

I love getting plus money on this bet in back-to-back weeks.

Wager: 1 unit

Josh Jacobs Under 60.5 Rushing Yards | -120 | FOX Bet

Josh Jacobs has only cleared 60.5 rushing yards twice this season. Meanwhile, in the last three games, the Chiefs have fielded a top-ten rush defense. Add the two together — plus the fact that the Raiders will likely be trailing early and therefore passing — and I like this under.

Wager: 1 unit

DeSean Jackson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards | -120 | Draft Kings

Without Darren Waller, DeSean Jackson is the only explosive player in the offensive lineup. Therefore, one would hope that the Raiders would prioritize getting Jackson the ball this week. Jackson is averaging 28.8 yards per catch, so it’d only take one reception to clear this total.

Wager: 1 unit

2021 Recommended-Wager Record: 21-11

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson