Week 9: Raiders at Giants Wagers and Predictions

We’re nearly halfway through the season, which makes this a good time to take stock at our current gambling record and how the futures bets are looking.

For the regular season games, the column has won 13 and lost 9. The good news is that we’re up and the better news is that we are trending in the right direction after going 3-1 in the last game.

The best news is that the seven recommended futures bets are looking very promising. These futures are below, sorted into three categories.

Future is Bright:

  1. Raiders over 7 wins: If the Raiders win three more games, this bet hits.
  2. Raiders over 404.5 Points: The Raiders are currently on pace for 436.9 points.
  3. Derek Carr over 4050.5 passing yards: Derek Carr is on pace to eclipse this by over 1500 yards.
  4. John Brown under 600.5 yards receiving: John Brown played a snap with Denver, which means this bet will pay at most sportsbooks.
  5. John Brown under 620.5 yards receiving: See above.

Future is Gloomy:

  1. Raiders to finish 2nd in AFC West: This was a plus-money projection at the Raiders overperforming expectations. Apparently, I wasn’t optimistic enough, as the Raiders are currently in first place.

There is No Future:

  1. Henry Ruggs over 699.5 yards receiving: This one will miss for obvious and tragic reasons.

A 5-2 record on futures would be acceptable, in general, and even more so if it means the Raiders win the AFC West. To achieve that, though, they’ll need to take care of business against a weak Giants team. Let’s dig in to this matchup.

Point Spread: Raiders (-3) at Giants

The key question in this game is one that’s been the theme of this season: How will the Raiders respond on the field to an off-the-field situation?

If you think the Raiders will respond positively, this is a line to bet. PFF Greenline projects this line at -3.6 and nfleo has it at -3.5.

I’m typically cautious in these situations, but the Giants are a bad football team dealing with their own off-the-field situation via COVID. Therefore, I’ll take the Raiders (-3) here.

Wager: 1 unit

Point Total: Over/Under 46.5

In their last two games, these two teams have played much different games. The Raiders games have gone over with totals of 55 and 58. Meanwhile, the Giants games have gone under with totals of 37 and 28.

Which style will this game be? The bettors expect it to be more like a typical Giants game with 93% of the cash on the under.

I slightly lean toward the over, but not enough to fade the cash. Therefore, let’s sit this one out.

Wager: Pass

Player Props

Two player props this week, both projections on how the Raiders offense will look without Henry Ruggs.

Zay Jones Under Receptions
Projection: 2.4
Book: PointsBet
Bet: Under (+125)
Notes: How the Raiders replace Henry Ruggs is unpredictable. That said, expecting three catches from Jones in his first start is a tall order, so I love getting plus-money on this wager.
Wager: 1 unit

Darren Waller Over Receiving Yards
Projection: 66.9
Book: PointsBet
Bet: Over (-115)
Notes: Waller has not surpassed 59 yards receiving since Week 2. That said, somebody has to soak up Ruggs’ missing targets and why not the Raiders most dynamic player?
Wager: 1 unit

2021 Recommended-Wager Record: 13-9

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson


1 thought on “Week 9: Raiders at Giants Wagers and Predictions

  1. I believe Raiders have easier time dealing with Ruggs situation than with Gruden which bolds well for this weeks game. I think it a mistake to replace Ruggs with Zay Jones. Waller should replace n Moreau getting to start again but Jones receiving more playing time because of Ruggs.

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