The Raiders draft has taken its fair share of criticism in recent days. Some feel they reached on a few picks and others, apparently including owner Mark Davis, don’t think the Raiders were given enough compensation for the 10th overall pick they traded to Arizona.
As picks are concerned, Kolton Miller may turn into an All-Pro left tackle or he could be a bust, but that won’t be determined for years.
As for the trade, there is a generally accepted chart that determines the value of draft picks. Courtesy of drafttek.com, the chart is shown below – with Oakland’s final picks highlighted.
The picks the Raiders received for their 10th overall pick were picks 15, 79, and 152.
The value of the 10th pick is valued at 1300 points.
The picks the Raiders received were valued at 1050 (15 overall), 195 (79 overall), and 30.2 (152 overall).
According to the chart, the total value of the picks received by Oakland was about 1275 – or about 25 points under than the 1300 valuation of their 10th overall pick.
The Raiders could have reasonably asked the Cardinals to tack on a 6th-round pick (18.2 points) or a 5th-round pick in next year’s draft (approximately 25 points).
But all things considered, the Raiders hardly got hosed by the trade. There wasn’t a “can’t miss” prospect on the board that the Raiders weren’t willing to pass on and the Cardinals knew the Raiders weren’t drafting Josh Rosen.
Maybe Arizona would have caved if Reggie McKenzie had demanded more, but the Cardinals probably suspected they could hold firm and offer the same trade to Miami a pick later.
The Raiders ultimately used pick 79 to acquire Martavius Bryant and packaged pick 152 in a trade with Baltimore to move up and draft offensive tackle Brandon Parker.
The trade for the right to draft Parker (pick 65) cost the Raiders picks 75, 152, and 212.
According to the chart, Baltimore’s 65th pick was valued at 265 while the Raiders three picks combined for a value of about 251.
Ultimately, the points won’t mean much. If the players can prove their value, no one will care about trade charts and pick values – but for those keeping score, the Raiders finished the draft about 11 points short of the value they traded away.
The chart says they got screwed by a whopping 6th-round pick – the trade value of this year’s 200th overall pick.
twitter: @raidersbeat
Excellent breakdown. We shouldn’t always listen to critics. Sometimes they are haters. Raiders did a great job. Wait and see.
The key is that in Arizona’s view the was a cant miss prospect at QB that they didn’t want to pass on and may have paid more for. Regardless not the end of the world.
Nice analysis. Of course, the Raiders and Arizona may also use slightly different draft value tables. It’s possible that, according to Arizona’s tables, for example, they only ‘gained’ 8 points on the trade. If Reggie pushed too hard towards the edge, the deal could have fallen apart.
i thought they got played in the trades also but when you see them broken down with points and attach player names and add in what was available the raiders pretty much broke even. maybe even have a little positive karma built up now with the cardinlas and will be able to do future business
Just have to wait and see….
That trade is an “a priori” chart – based on no data whatsoever, except Jimmy Johnson’s whim. A priori charts mean “prior to the fact.” There are “a posteriori” charts – that look at how different players selected at different slots ACTUALLY perform. Who cares what Jimmy Johnson thinks a pick is worth? It’s irrelevant. I have a breakdown of the trades based on the other charts (From Harvard). Here’s the link to the chart: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
Trade #1
Using data from actual player performance, Kevin Meers at the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective calculated pick value a posteriori (after their selection and looking at what they did). The 10th pick is worth 299.1 points in this system. The 15th pick is worth 264.7 points. I’ll pause here, as on the traditional system, the 15th pick is worth only 80% of the 10th pick, but in actual performance the 15th pick is worth 88% of the 10th pick. So, that trade in and of itself wasn’t a big step backwards. Add in the 79th pick, at 113.5, and the Raiders have already won the trade. Then throw in #152 at 62.6 and the Raiders “robbed them of their gold,” to the tune of giving up 299.1 to receive 440.8 in value, a return of 150% on their investment.
Trade #2: #41 for #57 and #89.
In terms of a posteriori value, the Raiders traded 160.8 for 137.6 and 104.4. That’s 242. Huge win again.
Trade #3: Raiders receive pick #65. They trade #75, #152, and #212.
On the Harvard scale, that’s trading 117.4 + 62.6 + 35.9 (215.9) to get 128.0, a horrible trade.
Trade #4: Raiders receive #87 for #89 and #217.
This is a 15% loss in the a posteriori chart. Then again, some of these players at around 217 are unlikely to hit, so it’s hard to complain if you really think your guy won’t be there in two spots.
Quick math: they traded 822.8 value away to receive 917.0.
Hard to complain.