Derek Carr’s Market Value (and Trade Value) is Going to be More Than You Might Think

The Raiders have a lot of big decisions to make in the offseason. One of them will involve Derek Carr.

Carr has one year left on his contract, but the expectation is that the organization is going to make a long-term decision on his future sooner rather than later. He might get a multi-year extension or it’s possible the Raiders will trade him.

If Carr’s contract is extended, Spotrac estimates his value to be around $31.5 million per year. That’s a lot of money, but it’s in line with the current market at quarterback. The Raiders might not be willing to pay Carr that kind of money, but there will be other teams happy to do so.

If the Raiders look to trade Carr, it will be interesting to see what his trade value will be. The free agent market at quarterback is expected to be thin and the only big name at quarterback that is expected to be traded is Russell Wilson. It also doesn’t look like a great year to draft a quarterback.

In other words, Carr’s trade value is going to be high.

It’s all speculation at this point, but a recent Pro Football Focus column placed Carr’s trade value at 2 first-round picks, and a third-round pick:

Do we expect the Raiders to trade Carr? No. In fact, they’re more likely to give him a top-of-market extension this offseason that makes him a Raider for life. However, with all the turmoil surrounding the team, what if a new head coach and/or general manager decides to just hit the reset button? The quickest way to do that is by getting a massive haul for the 30-year-old quarterback and jumpstarting a rebuild. 

Amidst what could be described as utter chaos around him, Carr has quietly become one of the NFL’s better starting quarterbacks among the 30-and-under age group. Since 2020, he ranks sixth in PFF passing grade among 30-and-under quarterbacks (85.0), second in big-time throw rate (6.7%), third in yards per attempt (7.9) and third in adjusted completion percentage (78.3%). Any way you slice it, Carr has become one of the game’s best quarterbacks with many years ahead of him.

One question worth asking is… where does Derek Carr stand on his future with the Raiders?

Yes, he has always maintained that he wants to retire as a Raider, but how many roster rebuilds is he willing to go through?

Will the direction Mark Davis takes the team this offseason affect Carr’s desire to come back?

Those are questions that we’ll have answers to soon enough.

twitter: @raidersbeat


19 thoughts on “Derek Carr’s Market Value (and Trade Value) is Going to be More Than You Might Think

    1. That’s the smart play and I hope that’s the one the Raiders make. I do think it will take a little more than 31 mil to sign him but Carr has been always been willing to structure his contract in a way that is team friendly.

  1. Derek Carr hurts his trade value by saying he would retire before playing with another team. Im sure he doesn’t care if it does but it hurts the raiders options on him I think.

  2. cut the strings !! 8 yrs of losing is enough. why would you sign on to 4-5 more yrs of this. you got aa brand new stadium and you need wins and playoffs to fill that stadium. you can no longer count on oakland and los angeles fans to travel 4 & 8 hr and pay out the nose to sit in a seat and watch them lose…

  3. One statement in this article says; “…It also doesn’t look like a good year to draft a quarterback.” For years, draft experts have lauded this guy or that guy as a great quarterback of the future and very few have ever lived up to the draft expert’s predictions. It should NEVER escape anyone’s notice that a guy who was drafted 199th in the 6th round has turned out to be what many people NOW consider the Greatest Of All Time. NONE of the EXPERTS predicted that and NONE of the EXPERTS picks as to who will or will not be a great quarterback should be given any more credence than a grain of salt. Look at all of the great and indeed Hall of Fame players that the EXPERTS never thought would be of NFL caliber. Roger Staubach was the 129th pick in the 10th round; Bart Starr was the 199th pick in the 17th round; Joe Theismann was the 99th pick of the 4th round; Mark Rypien was the 146th pick of the 6th round; Kurt Warner out of Northern Iowa went undrafted; Tony Romo out of Eastern Illinois went undrafted; Warren Moon out of the University of Washington went undrafted; Charles Haley out of James Madison University went undrafted; Wes Welker out of Texas Tech went undrafted; Antonio Gates out of Kent State went undrafted; Joe Jacoby out of Louisville went undrafted; John Randle out of Texas A&M-Kingsville went undrafted; James Harrison out of Kent State went undrafted; Adam Vinatari out of South Dakota State went undrafted; and so on and so on.

    So, the EXPERTS are nothing more than people who get paid to talk about things that they don’t know much about but people like to hear other people who “seem” to think they know what they are talking about. In fact, the louder they talk the more some people seem to listen and believe them. Does anyone besides me remember when Jon Gruden was talking up and fascinated by Johnny Manziel?

    My point? There are obviously gems out there to be had if some team does it’s due diligence. The problem? None of them wants to or are inclined to get off of their cushy derrieres and find the next GOAT. Thgey would rather listen to the current edition of tv. snake oil salesmen with their coffiered hair and tailored suits that look at stat sheets and surmise who is who.

    The Raiders traded Khalil Mack for two first round draft picks. If they can get the same for Derek Carr then they should do so expeditiously. To quote the late, great Al Davis; “…The greatness of the Raiders is their future.” So, for those of you that think that Derek Carr is the future of the Raiders, get ready to toil in however many more losing seasons that they sign him for. If they do resign him, the only good news is that, one day, this too shall pass.

  4. These are the Spotrac Market Values for Free Agents in the 2023 class.
    Brady 44
    Murray 42.8
    Stafford 42.4
    Cousins 33.7
    Carr 31.4
    Mayfield 29.1
    Garoppolo 26.8

    But these numbers mean very little out of context. Compared to QBs already on deals, here’s where those Average Annual Values would rank:
    1. Mahomes
    2. Brady
    3. Allen
    4. Stafford
    5. Prescott
    6. Watson
    7. Wilson
    8. Cousins
    9. Goff
    10. Rodgers
    11. Wentz
    12. CARR
    13. Ryan
    14. Tannehill
    15. Mayfield
    16. Garoppolo

    Is Carr worth taking the 12th highest share of roster money among QBs? Can a team with Carr making that much be a playoff team? Can they be a contender? These last two questions are the most pointed, in my view. Can they be a playoff team? Definitely. Can they be a contender? It would take some roster maneuvering and internal growth.

  5. Deben de extenderle el contrato y contratar a jugadores como el con corazon de raider no payasos de circo como A Brown Khalil Mack o la vedete A Eogers eso es lo que necesita el equipo y estabilidad en el ciacheo y hacer su offline mas fuerte al igual que la Defensiva y jugadores buenos los tenemos no payasos de circo

  6. The Seattle Seahawks were a good team when they decided to pay Russell Wilson. Look at their roster today. Fading defensive stars, poor offensive line, and a QB who wants out. The Raiders are not a good team, some upside players in key spots, lot of questions in the O line. One dependable playmaker in the receiving corps, maybe two, if Waller can put this year behind him. The best CB is an aged veteran, the others can’t stay on the field. Linebackers? Put it this way; we secured our punter and kicker.

  7. We need to keep Carr. Get a big running back. We have great receivers but we need to do better job protecting Carr and improve on our pass defense

  8. I think the only way to keep Carr and be legitimate contenders is to surround him with really good players. Sure, the Oline needs upgrading, but maybe only one or two players. WR1 is a must and Devante Adams is who they need to get if the Packers don’t tag him. There are a few others who would suffice. Maybe find a gem of a running back in the later rounds.
    After that, find a true shutdown CB, a talented LB and an interior defensive lineman that can help stop the run and put some additional pressure on the opposing QB. With a lot more salary cap in 2022, I believe the Raiders can accomplish this through free agency and the draft. Don’t extend Carr yet. However, the thought of two first rounders, and possibly more, is intriguing, so a trade may be the way to go–resign Mariota for 2 years and find another QB for the future. A lot has to happen between now and then with coaching and GM changes on the horizon. The Raiders do have quite a few good players, both young and veterans, on the squad. They just need to complete the roster and fill a few key holes.

  9. Raiders biggest issues all surround Carr. Low confidence in offensive line. Until he fully trusts the guys in front of him, the losing will continue. Why the raiders cannot give him the protection is anyones guess. Next biggest issue is playcalling, dink and dunk doesn’t get the job done. It’s a bit late to cure this Illness but it’s a must. Better playcalling is raiders next demon. This off season must cure this even if it means getting rid of offensive coaches , starting with offensive coordinator AND offensive line coach and bringing in quality linemen !!!

  10. To get rid of Carr would be the dumbest fucking thing since…………………………..Dumb

  11. Carr has to go. Until Carr is gone, we never have a chance of going anywhere. He might be ok physically, but everything else is wrong. WRONG. He has to go, let him go spend more time with Ruggs and Gruden…we need a new coach, a new gm, and a new QB. Sadly a new owner is out of the question, it feels like no matter what LV and Davis will be the laughing stock of pro sports for a long time.

  12. SPOT ON Benny O! Hue Jackson or someone similar who has a Offensive mind. MUST FIX O LINE. Carr on team friendly extension.

Comments are closed.