Two weeks into the season, this column’s futures bets are looking bright, as we are on pace to win two of the three recommended wagers.
Fittingly, it’s the longest-odds bet that’s currently incorrect: Raiders to finish second in AFC West at +550. Surprisingly, it’s incorrect because the Raiders have outperformed it.
In fact, now’s the time to consider sprinkling a little money on the Raiders to win the division, while they’re still fourth in the betting markets and the getting is good:
If the Raiders are going to compete for the division, they have to win trap games. And facing a struggling Dolphins team without their starting quarterback is exactly that. Let’s take a look at what the sportsbooks think of this game and make some wagers.
Point Spread: Dolphins (+3.5) at Raiders
I expect the Raiders to win this game, but I’m not confident that they’ll win by more than 3 points. Since 1996, 15 percent of games have been decided by 3 points. It’s a key number and it’s easy to imagine this game being won by the right foot of Daniel Carlson.
The Raiders moneyline is available at -186 and is a safer bet, although not as good a value as the next bet.
Wager: Pass
Over/Under: 44 Points
The totals have gone over in both Raiders games this season, while they’ve gone under in both Dolphins games. Therefore, a trend will be bucked in this game. The question is which one. With 58% of tickets and 74% of cash, the money is on the under.
But PFF greenline sees value in the over and so do I. 44 points is a low number. Only three games this week have a lower total. The Raiders run game can’t be trusted, so Jon Gruden will be dialing up more passes and to quote Ron Jaworksi “points come out of the passing game.”
Meanwhile, it’s debatable if quarterback Jacoby Brissett is actually a downgrade from Tua Tagovailoa. Regardless, while the Raiders defense is undeniably improved, they will still surrender some points and this game should clear the total.
Wager: 1 unit
Player Props
Player props remain the best market to bet and there are two I like for this week.
Derek Carr Over Pass Attempts
Line: 32.5
Projection*: 36.2
Book: DraftKings
Bet: Over (-115)
Notes: In Week 1, Carr threw 56 passes. In Week 2, that number was 37. Even with a balky ankle, I expect that theme to continue. Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense had 39 passes thrown against them in Week 1 and 33 in Week 2.
Wager: 1 unit
Henry Ruggs Over Receiving Yards
Line: 37.5
Projection*: 50.9
Book: FanDuel
Bet: Over (-114)
Notes: Ruggs has had at least 5 targets and cleared 46 receiving yards in each game. With his role as the field-stretcher, it’s possible he tops this number in one catch, which is why I like his receiving-yardage bet rather than his receptions bet.
Wager: 1 unit
Futures
In addition to the division bet mentioned at the top, there is another plus-money play to consider.
Maxx Crosby Defensive Player of the Year
Book: DraftKings
Odds: +8000
Notes: If you like long-shot bets, this is the dart to throw. Here are some names that currently have better-or-equal odds as the league-leader in pressures: Andrew Van Ginkel, Patrick Peterson, Raven Greene and Jaylon Smith. Not the most inspiring group. Mad Maxx deserves to instead be in the same tier as Aaron Donald, Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett. At these long odds, $10 pays out $810.
Wager: 0.1 unit
*Average of projections by Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Pros rounded to the hundredth.
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
