The post-game story — rightfully — will be Derek Carr.
His performance against the Eagles wasn’t just a winning one, it was near historic: His 91.2% completion percentage was the second-highest ever among quarterbacks with 30+ pass attempts. Oh and he’s now the NFL’s leading passer. Not a bad day’s work.
The in-game story, however, was much more than just the MVP-level play of Derek Carr:
- The defense — once again — generated pressure, limited big plays and put the Raiders in position to win.
- The Raiders pass-catching depth shined, with Carr completing passes to nine different players and showing no signs of missing the injured Darren Waller.
- For the second week in a row, Greg Olson called a fantastic game and has the Raiders offense humming.
The combination of a swarming defense and an explosive offense bodes well for the Raiders future and features heavily in this week’s Pivotal Plays.
Editor’s Note: For an explanation of Win Probability (WP) and Expected Points Added (EPA), the first article in this series has a breakdown.
Raiders Convert a 3rd and 15 in First Quarter
The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 15 with 7:11 left in the first quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 34%
The Play: Needing 15 yards, Derek Carr does 28 better and completes a deep pass to Zay Jones for a 43-yard gain.
The Outcome: The long completion was worth a game-high 4.5 EPA and improved the Raiders WP by 14%.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 48%
Carr Intercepted in First Quarter
The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 5 with 4:51 left in the first quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 45%
The Play: Carr’s lone blemish on the day is this red-zone pass intended for Jalen Richard that is instead intercepted by Avonte Maddox.
The Outcome: The interception prevents a near-certain scoring opportunity, is worth a Raider-low -4.3 EPA and lowers their WP by 11%.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 36%
Josh Jacobs Second-Quarter Touchdown Run
The Situation: The Raiders face a 1st and Goal with 1:42 left in the half.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 69%
The Play: Derek Carr hands off to Josh Jacobs, who cuts left and runs eight yards for a touchdown.
The Outcome: The Jacobs run caps a drive that raised the Raiders WP by 14%, with the touchdown worth 2.0 EPA.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 74%
Raiders Recover Second-Quarter Fumble
The Situation: The Eagles face a 1st and 10 with 1:38 remaining in the first half.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 74%
The Play: On the first play of the ensuing Eagles drive, Quinton Jefferson strips RB Kenny Gainwell and Johnathan Abram recovers, giving the Raiders the ball at the Eagles 29.
The Outcome: A mere one play after Jacobs’ TD, the Raiders get the ball back, with the fumble recovery worth -4.6 EPA to the Eagles.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 85%
Raiders Open Second Half with a Touchdown
The Situation: The Raiders face a 2nd and 12 with 14:02 left in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 84%
The Play: Derek Carr connects with Foster Moreau for a 21-yard gain, putting the Raiders at the edge of the red zone.
The Outcome: The play is worth 2.1 EPA, increases WP by 6% and sets the Raiders up for their 17th unanswered point in a 24-play stretch where the Eagles only ran 2 plays.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 90%
Raiders Defense Gets Another Fumble
The Situation: The Eagles face a 3rd and 1 with 3:04 remaining in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 98%
The Play: Jalen Hurts fumbles an errant shotgun snap and Corey Littleton is there for the recovery.
The Outcome: The Raiders thwarting an Eagles scoring opportunity is worth a game-low -6.2 EPA, sealing this game before the fourth quarter has even begun.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 100%
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
*Win probability data courtesy of rbsdm.com
**Highlights courtesy of NFL
As much as I love the win i wish Raiders could have finished out the game with blowout n not allow them to gain a lot more yards.
If u remove the hurts fumble n take away attempt to onside kick n maybe this game is a lot closer or different outcome.
Just would like to see them finish out game n look stronger.