It may be time for Jon Gruden to tear up his first-quarter game script. And, while he’s at it, the short-yardage plays can go in the shredder, too.
Through four games, the Raiders have scored five first-quarter points. Suffice it to say, if you can count first-quarter points on one hand, you’re not starting fast.
Meanwhile, continuing a trend from last season, the Raiders haven’t fared much better in short-yardage situations. Relying on the worst-ranked run-blocking offensive line in the NFL — especially when the defense is expecting it — won’t get it done.
Against lesser opponents, the Raiders have been able to overcome these deficiencies. Against the Chargers, however, they met a team that was equally explosive on offense and, perhaps most importantly, was better on fourth down.
In the first three games, Jon Gruden’s fourth-down aggression gave the Raiders a strategic advantage. That was not the case this week. Chargers coach Brandon Staley was more aggressive and, unlike the Raiders, the Chargers consistently converted.
These short-yardage and fourth-down plays will be a recurring theme in this week’s Pivotal Plays, which appear in chronological order.
For a refresher on Win Probability (WP) and Expected Points Added (EPA), the first article in this series has a breakdown.
On to the plays, which begin and end with a fourth down.
Hunter Renfrow’s Fourth-Down Stop
The Situation: The Chargers — with the ball at the Raiders’ 41 — line up to punt on 4th and 12 with 2:07 remaining in the first quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 23%
The Play: Noticing that there wasn’t a Raider defender covering the gunner, the Chargers’ punter throws an accurate pass, only to have it broken up by Hunter Renfrow – who covered an impressive 10.4 yards in 1.5 seconds.
The Outcome: Renfrow’s heady play was worth -2.8 EPA to the Chargers, gave the Raiders great field position and increased their WP by 5%.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 28%
Raiders Failed Fourth-Down Conversion in Second Quarter
The Situation: The Raiders face a 4th and 3 with 11:41 left in the second quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 26%
The Play: After the third-down run was stuffed for a loss, Derek Carr throws short to Josh Jacobs who is unable to pick up the necessary yards.
The Outcome: Gruden’s aggressive fourth-down decision was thwarted by a conservative play. The failed conversion was worth -3.2 EPA and lowered the Raiders WP by 4%.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 22%
Jared Cook Second-Quarter Touchdown Reception
The Situation: The Chargers face a 3rd and 8 at the Raiders ten-yard line with 4:21 left in the half.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 13%
The Play: Justin Herbert finds former-Raider Jared Cook for the touchdown.
The Outcome: The play was worth 3.4 EPA, but since the Chargers had a commanding Win Probability the entire night, the touchdown only increased WP by 2%.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 11%
Hunter Renfrow Touchdown in Third Quarter
The Situation: The Raiders face 3rd and Goal with 9:08 remaining in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 5%
The Play: Hunter Renfrow runs his signature route and Carr finds him for the touchdown.
The Outcome: The touchdown was worth 3.1 EPA yet only added 2% of WP, which is indicative of how dire the Raiders’ situation was at this point.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 7%
Chargers Fourth-Down Conversion in Third Quarter
The Situation: The Chargers face a 4th and 2 with 6:22 remaining in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 6%
The Play: The Chargers snap the ball quickly — before the Raiders are fully set — and Justin Herbert finds Jared Cook in the flat for an easy six-yard gain.
The Outcome: The quick-hitting play made good on Staley’s aggressive fourth-down decision and rewarded the Chargers with 3.1 EPA.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 4%
Derek Carr 51-Yard Completion to Henry Ruggs
The Situation: The Raiders face a 1st and 10, at their own 14, with 13:26 remaining in the game.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 16%
The Play: Derek Carr lofts a deep pass down the left side to Henry Ruggs for a 51-yard completion.
The Outcome: This play flipped field position and was worth 3.3 EPA, making it the highest-EPA play for the Raiders all night.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 24%
Daniel Carlson Missed 4th-Quarter Field Goal
The Situation: The Raiders face a 4th and 9 with 10:43 remaining in the game.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 17%
The Play: Jon Gruden’s conservative fourth-down decision backfires when Daniel Carlson misses the field goal, ending his streak of 29 consecutive makes.
The Outcome: The missed field goal was worth -4.1 EPA, lowered the Raiders’ already slight WP by six percent and gave the Chargers the ball near midfield.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 11%
Chargers Fourth-Down Conversion in Fourth Quarter
The Situation: A mere 4 plays after Carlson’s missed field goal, the Chargers face a 4th and 2 with 9:24 remaining in the game.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 14%
The Play: Brandon Staley chooses to be aggressive and Justin Herbert again connects with Jared Cook for the conversion.
The Outcome: The conversion was worth 3.0 EPA, halved the Raiders WP and iced the game for the Chargers.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 7%
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
*Win probability data courtesy of rbsdm.com
**Highlights courtesy of NFL