Last week’s column won every wager and even recommended not betting the spread because it was “easy to imagine this game being won by the right foot of Daniel Carlson.”
Not a bad day at the online sportsbook.
While I have no predictions on how this game will be won, there are a few bets I like this week. Let’s start with my favorite.
Point Spread: Raiders (+3.5) at Chargers
In a perfect example of why you should place your against-the-spread wagers early in the week, I bet this at +4 on Tuesday.
But there are lots of reasons to love the Raiders at +3.5:
- PFF’s Greenline believes the line should be Raiders +2.2.
- Robert Greer’s model believes the line should be zero.
- Home-field advantage is weaker than ever:
- And, even if home-field were a significant advantage, the crowd in Los Angeles is projected to be 74% Raider fans.
Clearly, there is value on the Raiders at +3.5. If it drops to +3 — or if you are confident the Raiders will win outright — the Moneyline at +155 is a solid play, as well.
Wager: 1 unit
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Anytime two MVP-candidate quarterbacks square off there is shootout potential.
Part of what makes this game so interesting, however, is that Derek Carr and Justin Herbert will be facing above-average pass defenses. The Raiders and Chargers both rank in the top ten of PFF’s pass-rush grade and each has a good secondary:
- The Raiders have PFF’s third-highest coverage grade.
- The Chargers, meanwhile, have yet to surrender a 300-yard-passing game and are elite at disguising their coverages:
All that to say, 51.5 is a high total, considering the caliber of the defenses.
Wager: Pass
Player Props
This may be the only week all season that I prefer the spread bet to any of the player props. That said, there are two worth considering and they happen to play the same position.
Jared Cook Under Receptions
Line: 3.5
Projection*: 3.4
Book: Draft Kings
Bet: Under (-110)
Notes: The former Raider has only topped this number once this season and has seen both his target and receptions drop each week.
Wager: 1 unit
Darren Waller Over Receptions
Line: 5.5
Projection*: 6.3
Book: Draft Kings
Bet: Over (-150)
Notes: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce was targeted 11 times against the Chargers last week. The Raiders could mimic that approach against a Charger defense that plays lots of zone. Waller leads the Raiders in targets (16) and receptions (8) against zone defense this season.
Wager: 1 unit
*Average of projections by Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Pros rounded to the hundredth.
2021 Recommended-Wager Record: 5-2
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson