What a difference a week makes.
In last week’s loss to Chicago, the Pivotal Plays were recurring errors: inability to convert in short-yardage offense, the offensive line’s continuing struggles and Bryan Edwards’ costly mistakes.
The opposite happened in this week’s win in Denver: short-yardage offense resulted in explosive plays, the offensive line protected and Bryan Edwards had the fourth-biggest play of the game.
It’s too early to determine if these issues are permanently fixed, but one thing is clear: the changes implemented by interim coach Rich Bissacia and his staff were successful this week.
Editor’s Note: For an explanation on Win Probability (WP) and Expected Points Added (EPA), the first article in this series has a breakdown.
First-Quarter Bomb to Henry Ruggs
The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 2 with 12:04 left in the first quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 34%
The Play: The Raiders overcome one of their most-consistent deficiencies — short-yardage offense — with a deep touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs.
The Outcome: The touchdown is worth a game-high 5.1 EPA and increases the Raiders WP by 14% — changing this from a contest in which the Broncos were heavily favored into one that’s a coin flip.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 48%
Kenyan Drake Second-Quarter Touchdown Reception
The Situation: The Raiders face a 1st and 10 with 0:36 seconds remaining in the first half.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 56%
The Play: Derek Carr connects with Kenyan Drake on a deep pass for a touchdown.
The Outcome: The touchdown was worth 4.5 EPA and increased the Raiders WP by 15%, giving them a commanding position going into halftime.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 71%
Teddy Bridgewater Third-Quarter Fumble
The Situation: The Broncos face a 1st and 10 with 2:29 remaining in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 86%
The Play: After a short scramble, Teddy Bridgewater is stripped by Solomon Thomas and the fumble is recovered by Denzel Perryman.
The Outcome: The turnover is worth a game-low -5.2 EPA and gives the Raiders the ball in Broncos territory.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 94%
Third-Quarter Bomb to Henry Ruggs
The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 12 with 1:37 left in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 93%
The Play: Derek Carr again converts a third down with a deep pass to Henry Ruggs.
The Outcome: The completion was worth 4.5 EPA and nearly halved the Broncos’ WP.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 96%
Fourth-Quarter Bomb to Bryan Edwards
The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 5 with 10:08 remaining in the game.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 95%
The Play: Another third-down conversion via the deep pass, but this time the target is Bryan Edwards.
The Outcome: The completion is worth 3.9 EPA, puts the Raiders in the red zone and — for all intents and purposes — ices the game.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 98%
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
*Win probability data courtesy of rbsdm.com
**Highlights courtesy of NFL
There was no what a difference a week makes. Lets be clear the O-Line has major issues. Raiders did not run the ball well this game n only produced the little they did due to Carrs great passing performance. That was difference in game and week.
The defense has some major hurdles as well. They allowed Denver to get their highest total yards in game this year and game would have been different had it not been for the turnovers.
How many times did Gruden call a deep pass on 3rd and long? Never? He would call a run between the Tackles, or the same pass attempt to Renfrow they had called 3 times already. Gruden’s play calling was so predictable, so limited, and so unsuccessful much of the time it was miserable to watch.