Pivotal Seven: The 7 Plays That Most Impacted The Raiders Win Probability on Sunday

The 2021 Raiders are showing a penchant for the dramatic. Three weeks into the season and they’ve played two overtime games, winning both on their second possession of the extra period.

Needless to say, in a game with as many ebbs and flows as this one, the pivotal plays were abundant. This week, we’ll be looking at the seven biggest ones in chronological order.

For a refresher on Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP), last week’s article has a breakdown. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the plays that decided the instant classic against Miami.

Elandon Roberts Pick Six

The Situation: The Raiders face a 2nd and 5 with 6:50 left in the 1st quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 70%
The Play: Likely due to a miscommunication with tight-end Foster Moreau — who cuts his route off short — Derek Carr’s pass is intercepted by Elandon Roberts, who returns it 85 yards for a touchdown.

The Outcome: With the Raiders seemingly en route to their own score, this INT was a huge early swing. The Dolphins touchdown was worth a whopping -11.7 EPA and lowered the Raiders WP by 28% — moving them from strong favorites to underdogs.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 42%

Peyton Barber Stuffed on 4th-and-1

The Situation: The Raiders face a 4th and 1 on their own 34, with 4:55 left in the first quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability:  40%
The Play: Last season’s short-yardage issues rear their head, as Peyton Barber is stuffed for no gain.

The Outcome: The decision to go for it was shrewd, but Raiders’ inability to effectively run block doomed a predictable playcall. The turnover on downs in their own territory lowered the Raiders WP by 11 points, making them heavy underdogs at this point.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 29%

Hunter Renfrow Converts Third Down for a Touchdown

The Situation: On their 1st possession of the 2nd half, the Raiders face a 3rd and 9 at the Dolphins 11-yard line.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 61%
The Play: Hunter Renfrow runs his signature quadruple-move route and Carr hits him for a touchdown.

The Outcome: Renfrow’s catch-and-run touchdown was good for 2.9 EPA, gave the Raiders the lead and increased their WP by 12 points.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 73%

Darren Waller Third-Down Conversion

The Situation: The Raiders face a 3rd and 13 with 1:36 left in the 3rd quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 82%
The Play: Derek Carr threads a pass between two defenders and connects with Darren Waller for a 23-yard gain.

The Outcome: The Raiders converted the third down, but more importantly they moved from the edge of Carlson’s FG range into the red zone for an EPA of 3.6. The Raiders score a touchdown 5 plays later.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 87%

Jacoby Brissett 4th-Down Touchdown Run + 2-Point Conversion

The Situation: The Dolphins are in a dire spot: Down 8, with 8 seconds left in regulation, and facing a 4th down from the Raiders 1.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 92%
The Play: Jacoby Brissett escapes the grasp of 3 Raiders and scrambles into the end zone for an unlikely touchdown, followed by a pass to Will Fuller for the two-point conversion.

The Outcome: The improbable two-play sequence tied the game and lowered the Raiders WP by a staggering 38 points.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 54%

Dolphins 4th-and-20 Prayer is Answered

The Situation: The Dolphins face a 4th and 20, in overtime, with the game on the line.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 84%
The Play: Jacoby Brissett shrugs off Darius Philon and then connects with Mike Gesicki for a 27-yard completion.

The Outcome: The 4th-down conversion was worth 4.1 EPA, lowered the Raiders WP by 29 points and put the Dolphins in FG range.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 55%

 Bryan Edwards Overtime Catch in Double Coverage

The Situation: The Raiders face a 2nd and 15 with 2:43 left in overtime.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability:  27%
The Play: With pressure in his face, Carr lofts a pass to Bryan Edwards, who makes a fantastic catch for a 34-yard gain.

The Outcome: While it was Daniel Carlson’s FG that ultimately won the game, Edwards’ clutch catch was the pivotal play of overtime. By moving from their own 20 to the edge of Carlson’s FG range, the play increased the Raiders WP by 24%, making them favorites once again. Six plays later the Raiders went from favorites to winners.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 51%

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson

*Win probability data courtesy of rbsdm.com
**Highlights courtesy of NFL


Share:

2 thoughts on “Pivotal Seven: The 7 Plays That Most Impacted The Raiders Win Probability on Sunday

  1. My first home Raider game and my heart could barely take it! It was a perfect Trap game and turned into it quick. The stadium is AMAZING, the crowd was CRAZY! But the Defense kept it’s composure when it mattered and we left the building a happy Nation.
    One point I’d like to make though. I saw it coming and said so to my row. “The center is going to hike that ball over DCs head, you watch.” Two snaps later and it came true. I hope they work on it because DC has enough to concentrate on without worrying about the snap!

Comments are closed.