Former Chiefs offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz rattled a few cages among Raider fans last month when he said Geno Smith was “not as good as people want him to be.”
“They trust Geno Smith and trust is important. Now I think Geno is not as good as people want him to be. I mean, they love the redemption story about Geno, but he just he was good for about eight weeks,” Schwartz said on The GM Shuffle podcast in July.
“His first couple of weeks, his first couple of months in Seattle… [he] has not been the same player since. But there were no other options. It was either go with no quarterback in year one, essentially, right?”
This week, Schwartz did a betting column for FOX Sports and acknowledged that Smith is “maybe” a top 12 quarterback in the NFL.
He also said he likes the coaching staff in Las Vegas but doesn’t see the Raiders winning eight games in Pete Carroll’s first year with the team.
“I’d lean toward Las Vegas [winning seven games or less] this season even though I like the coaching staff and trust the Raiders to be prepared for every game,” Schwartz wrote on Wednesday. “I just don’t think the team is all that talented and those teams tend to lose more than they win.”
All things considered, Schwartz isn’t wrong that the Raiders have questions around their roster and Smith still has a lot to prove in his NFL career.
Every indication has been that the Raiders are having one of their better training camps, but a lot is going to have to go right for Carroll and company to compete for the playoffs.
If Smith can return to the “Top 10 Quarterback” discussion, the Raiders should have enough talent around him to surpass seven wins. Playoffs are possible, but it’s going to be an uphill climb in the AFC West with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos all considered viable contenders in the AFC.
x: @raidersbeat
A lot of what he says is true. But losing 10 games is a knucklehead comment
I think Aiden is as good as Smith. But the experience and leadership sides with Smith.
And the contract that we were able to manufacture with Smith is painless. Pete isn’t going to stick with Smith if he isn’t getting it done.
I actually think it’s possible to win 10 games this season. And I haven’t said that in a long time. Without any bias.
We gave Smith over 66 million guaranteed and a 3rd round pick, I don’t call that painless.
Paying the going rate is painless. Overpaying is painful. Based on production Smith is getting the going rate.
Your comment regarding Aiden being as good as Smith got me thinking, so here is what AI came up with:
Aidan O’Connell – Projected Over 32 Games
Based on his 2023–24 combined performance (20 games):
• Completion Percentage: 62.6%  
• Passer Rating: 85.1  
• Rushing: Not explicitly detailed, but negligible as a passer; we’ll project ~3 yards/game (based on limited data).
Per-Game Averages
• Passing Yards: 3,830 ÷ 20 = 191.5 yds/game
• Touchdowns: 20 ÷ 20 = 1.0 TD/game
• Interceptions: 11 ÷ 20 = 0.55 INT/game
• Rushing Yards: ~2–3 yds/game
Extrapolated Totals (32 Games)
Stat Projection
Passing Yards ~6,128 yards
Touchdowns ~32 TDs
Interceptions ~18 INTs
Completion % ~62.6%
Passer Rating ~85.1
Rushing Yards ~70–90 total
⸻
Geno Smith – Actual Over 2023–24 (32 Games)
• Passing Yards: 7,944
• Touchdowns: 41
• Interceptions: 24
• Passer Rating: ~92.7 
• Completion %: Averaged approximately mid-60s (64.7% in 2023, 70.4% in 2024)  
• Rushing (2023–24):
• 2023: 155 yards
• 2024: 272 yards
• Total (Projected): ~427 yards → ~13–14 yds/game average  
⸻
Side-By-Side Comparison
Statistic O’Connell (×32 proj.) Geno Smith (32 games)
Passing Yards ~6,128 7,944
Touchdowns ~32 41
Interceptions ~18 24
Completion % ~62.6% ~67–70% range
Passer Rating ~85.1 ~92.7
Rushing Yards ~70–90 ~427
I think the most important and glaring difference is O’Connell’s complete lack of mobility and overall passer rating. I found this interesting and while I don’t agree fully, your point is taken.
Apples to oranges. Analytics only worked for Billy Beane.
Personnel changes, three different options of coordinators, three different head coaches, and you want to come up with statistics to compare the two?
Film study. Try it sometime. It might open your mind.
And don’t be surprised if you actually see an evolution in Aiden‘s mobility.
Yup pompous, look it up, it fit your reply to a T.
But yeah, we’ll let the results do the talking.
I think both quarterbacks are in big trouble. We have the worst offensive line in the NFL. And the lack of urgency in improving it definitively is on the front office.
Defenses are going to load the box. All the passes will be underneath. Our savior running back will be lucky to hit 500 yards total offense. And that tool that said that we were going to lose 10 games, now is looking like he knows what he was talking about.
Ahh, I was giving you a thoughtful civil reply and you chose to be arrogant and pompous.
No, analytics doesn’t just work for Billy Beane, they’re used extensively throughout all sports and have proven to work.
I have actually watched some video breakdown of Aiden and while his decision making and accuracy aren’t bad, he is a truck, Smith is light years a better runner, with much more escapability, so unless we have a top 5 OL, that makes Smith a much better QB for our team by far.
So next time someone gives you a civil online reply, try responding in kind, instead of trying to pretend you have all the answers, which you clearly do not.
I have a feeling that Smith isn’t gonna go the distance this season. So we let the results do all the talking.
Because we both know opinions are like a wholes. Everyone has one.
Pompous? lol
Raiders aren’t going to lose 10 games that’s ridiculous.
Meanwhile, the Raiders should absolutely be exploring a trade for Parsons.
If we can get him, there is no reason on earth he shouldn’t be a Raider.
It will be a long shot for the team to make the playoffs. The 3 other division teams are vastly more talented plus it looks like our OL will be a work in progress, and that will limit the offense. The CB position will be manned by inexperienced players or players with injury history. I agree, too many unproven players being counted on. But I’m always hoping for the best!
OakTown, you have it right.
First, the other 3 teams, in our division, made the playoffs last year.
Second, our offensive line gave up 50 sacks last year and, at best, IS a work in progress. The Kansas City Chiefs forfeited a chance to win another Super Bowl because they couldn’t protect Patrick Mahomes. Until this group is fixed, the Raiders won’t be going anywhere.
Third, anyone who believes that lead footed and inconsistent Adian O’Connell is a viable option at second string quarterback is taking too much medication.
This new Raiders management needs to be realistic about what this team is and what it’s going to take to make them what optimism alone can’t make them and that is competitive. I have been advocating, all off-season, that the Raiders need to make a trade with the New England Patriots for 31 year old, battle tested, experienced and mobile Joshua Dobbs. Adian O’Connell couldn’t run around a corner and has zero escapability.
The greatness of Al Davis was his ability to realisticly look at, assess and address the weaknesses of his team and then fix those areas of concern. Current Raiders management needs to do the same thing. There are major shortcomings on this team ie. linebackers, cover corners, offensive linemen and back-up quarterback to name a few.
Chip Kelly’s offensive brilliance is about to be wasted because of substandard personel on the offensive line. Patrick Graham’s defensive schemes are about to be neutralized due to marginal defensive players. Even Pete Carroll’s effervescence can’t overcome these glaring inadequacies.
So, start the 3 year makeover this year with solid, youthful players who are the future and jettison the ineffective ones like Tyree Wilson, trade Kolton Miller while he still has some trade value. When Andy Reed went to the Kansas City Chiefs he had to build from the ground up. So did Jimmy Johnson when he went to the Dallas Cowboys and so did Bill Walsh with the San Francisco 49ers. Start now, right now!!!
O’Connells stats through 2 years on a bad team are much better than Dobbs stats through 7 years. O’Connell might not be fleet of foot but he is far and away a better passer than Dobbs. Stats don’t lie.
So now we care about a former kc player named Geoff Schwartz? Who cares? He was and is a nobody period. He should be probably more worried about both healthy Koonce and Crosby coming at ketchup boy full steam. Take the mf out and put your boy in. Gardner Minshew yup he’s your back up!
Exactly. And ex-Queef. Irrelevant comment from an irrelevant player. As long as my Raiders trend upwards from last year, I’ll be looking for an even better 2026. Go Raiders. Screw the 31 others and their trollbots.
Not looking so irrelevant now. If anybody doesn’t see that, we have the worst offensive line in the NFL, they’ve got their eyes closed.