Raiders’ Post-Gruden Offense Has Evolved in 3 Ways Under Greg Olson

What will the Raiders offense look like without Jon Gruden? Can a unit survive, much less thrive, without its architect?

While the plethora of off-the-field questions — deservedly — took center stage during the Gruden e-mail leak and resignation, the offensive scheme was the million dollar on-the-field question.

Before answering the question, let’s look back to history for a guide.

2002 Raiders Offense: The First to Break Gruden’s Mold

The 2002 Raiders faced this very same question — albeit in a very different time of year. In March of that offseason, after trading Jon Gruden, Al Davis promoted a non play-caller in Bill Callahan to head coach.

Rather than remain loyal to the blueprint Gruden left behind, new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman put his trust in quarterback Rich Gannon. The pair made tweaks to the offense, none bigger than eschewing one of Gruden’s offensive staples: run-pass balance.

In 2000, Gruden’s Raiders ran the ball the third-most in the NFL. In 2001, they ran it twelfth most. In 2002, without Gruden, that rank was 23rd, as the Raiders left balance behind by putting the ball in Rich Gannon’s hands early and often:

Obviously, those 2002 tweaks worked. That offense finished the season ranked #1 in yards, Rich Gannon won MVP and the Raiders went to the Super Bowl. Of course, they lost that Super Bowl to Jon Gruden, but that’s a different column for a different day.

The 2002 season tells us that a few tweaks to Gruden’s blueprint can lead to improvements. The question for the 2021 Raiders: What will new play-caller Greg Olson tweak? And will it work?

Two games gives some early answers.

2021 Raiders: Diverting from Gruden’s Blueprint in Three Ways

1. Olson Has Tripled Play-Action Passing Frequency

Under Jon Gruden, the Raiders were throwing — by far — the fewest play-action passes in the NFL.

The lack of play-action passing was a mystery because it’s proven to be the most effective form of passing. For example, a PFF study over three seasons found that “quarterbacks average a 103.5 passer rating on play-action, but only 90.1 the rest of the time.”

Furthermore, play-action passing has proven to be successful regardless of how effective your run game is. Therefore, the Raiders poor run game was no excuse for not dialing up play-action passes.

Enter new play-caller Greg Olson, who has significantly increased its use over the last two weeks:

Play-Action Passing Distribution by Play-Caller

Play-Action by Play-Caller	Percent of Dropbacks	Yards Per Game	YPA	QB Rating
Jon Gruden*	11.5%	37.8	8.6	90.9
Greg Olson**	32.8%	90	9.5	123.7

The results — predictably — have been outstanding. Derek Carr has gone 15-19 for 180 yards and 1 touchdown on these throws over the last two weeks.

But play-action passing is not the only underused passing concept to see a healthy increase.

2. Screen Game: Doubled in Amount and Effectiveness

As a team that plays the Chiefs twice per season, Raider fans know how effective the screen game can be.

The screen can only be effective, however, if you’re calling it. Which Jon Gruden wasn’t. In weeks 1-5, only Lamar Jackson and Teddy Bridgewater had thrown fewer screen passes than Derek Carr, among starting quarterbacks.

Much like with play-action passing, Greg Olson has changed this, for the better. In fact, he’s not only called more screens, but the Raiders are also getting double the yardage on those screens:

Screen Passing Distribution by Play-Caller

Screens by Play-Caller	Percent of Dropbacks	Yards Per Game	YPA	QB Rating
Jon Gruden*	5.3%	11.6	4.8	86.8
Greg Olson**	10.9%	33.5	9.6	106.5

More and more effective is quite a combo.

3. Increased Passing in Short-Yardage Situations

Last season, the great Ted Nguyen did a deep dive on the Raiders short-yardage woes. And, let’s just say, the results weren’t good:

Overall, the Raiders are fifth in third-down conversion rate (46.5 percent) and third in fourth-down conversion rate (73.7 percent). Strangely, those numbers dramatically dip when looking specifically at third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 situations. In those two situations, the Raiders only convert 44 percent of the time, which is near the bottom of the league.

Ted Nguyen’s article “Raiders analysis: A glaring weakness in Jon Gruden’s play calling”

Unfortunately, that trend continued into 2021, as Gruden continued to predictably — and stubbornly — run the ball in these situations. To this point, Gruden ran the ball 10% more than expected on third and short.

Enter Greg Olson, who has significantly increased short-yardage passing:

And what are the results of passing more in these situations? Fewer stuffed runs and more explosive plays like this long touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs on third and two:

Under Jon Gruden, the short-yardage game was possibly the offense’s biggest deficiency. If Greg Olson can make that a permanent strength, he can elevate this unit into a top-tier offense.

Summary: A More Diverse Passing Attack is A Better Passing Attack

Unsurprisingly, running more play-action and screen passes has improved the overall passing offense, by every metric. To start, let’s look at traditional and PFF stats to see the improvement:

Derek Carr by Play-Caller	COM %	YPA	QB Rating	PFF Pass Rating	PFF Pass Rank
Jon Gruden*	63.9%	7.8	92.8	82.8	10th
Greg Olson**	80.3%	10.9	127.0	91.8	1st

An 80.3% completion rate is almost certainly unsustainable. It does, however, point to the success of an offensive philosophy that embraces a play-action passing game.

The improvement is even more striking when looking at offensive success as a whole, as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA):

It’s clearly not just Derek Carr who’s benefiting. Offensive efficiency is up across the board.

And that improvement is not because the Raiders were playing worse defenses with Olson calling the plays:

• The average EPA/play rank of defenses faced by Jon Gruden: 17th
• The average EPA/play rank of defenses faced by Greg Olson: 16th

It is possible that defenses will catch up to the Raiders changing offensive philosophy. But since the play-calling has been rooted in strategies that have proven successful, I like the Raiders odds.

*Weeks 1-5
**Weeks 6-7

Twitter: @TravisGilkeson