Find something you love as much as Rich Bisaccia loves trotting out his special teams unit on fourth down.
That would not be an easy proposition, as conservative fourth-down decisions have been a consistent hallmark of the Bisaccia era. Last week’s Raiders Stats and Storylines did a deep dive on how these decisions have negatively affected the team’s chances of winning. And in Week 11’s loss to the Bengals, Bisaccia was somehow worse.
In four situations where the math says a team should go for it, Bisaccia did the opposite. Cumulatively, these decisions cost the Raiders 4.9% in Win Probability (WP). To put that in perspective, that’s more than Foster Moreau’s touchdown reception was worth.
Therefore, instead of focusing on the action, this week’s Pivotal Plays will examine each of these fourth-down decisions, in chronological order.
Editor’s Note: For an explanation of Win Probability (WP) and Expected Points Added (EPA), the first article in this series has a breakdown.
4th and Goal at Bengals 8
Bisaccia’s first decision was his least egregious:
The real shame of this drive was coming away with only three points after recovering a fumble in Bengals territory. That said, Bisaccia’s penchant for choosing the most conservative option did cost the Raiders 0.5% of WP.
4th and 4 at the Bengals 44
After another first-quarter drive stalls, Bisaccia again chooses an overly conservative decision, this time choosing not to pursue any points:
Choosing to punt in an opponent’s territory is an old-school decision in the worst way. And shows that Bisaccia learned nothing from last week’s loss, in which the Raiders “pinned” the Chiefs back in a similar situation, only to have the Chiefs march 89 yards down the field for a touchdown.
4th and 3 at Bengals 29
With more aggressive decision-making, there’s a world the Raiders are winning 14-3 at this juncture. Instead, they’re tied 3-3 and Bisaccia again decides that field goals are the way to go:
At this point in the game, the breaks and momentum were going the Raiders way. Despite this, the Raiders have only a three-point lead. A share of that blame falls on Bisaccia’s shoulders for decision-making like this.
4th and 2 at Raiders 31
Now losing by 4, the Raiders desperately need to get the offense on track and give the defense a breather. Instead, when faced with a short 4th down, Bisaccia sits his offense down:
The Bengals dominated time of possession in this game, due partially to decisions like this.
Conclusion:
When Bisaccia was given the reins to this team, he had a clear path to NFL history: Become the first interim head coach to make the playoffs.
Instead of making the most of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, he’s consistently – and disappointingly – been overly conservative with house money. By treating fourth downs as a scary proposition rather than a worthy roll of the dice, he’s stood in his own way.
With the Raiders’ playoff chances now minuscule, it’s increasingly likely Bisaccia will be coordinating special teams for a different team next season. In other words, he’ll have to return the house its money, which, of course, happens every day in Las Vegas. Unfortunately for Bisaccia, however, he’ll return his without ever truly wagering it. A disappointing end and one that will likely come with a lingering what if?
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
*Win probability data courtesy of rbsdm.com
*Fourth-down data courtesy of @ben_bot_baldwin
And no way shape or form is the coach the problem the problem is been the quarterback that can’t carry the load that can’t win but thinks that he can get her car is complete waste of money and a complete waste of time to keep on the pink I’ve been saying it now for seven f****** years but you guys don’t listen he is the reason why the Raiders were at their head out of their *** and actually win so far this year Derek Carr has lost three games on his own bypassing and fumbling three different game he’s single-handedly lost weight cut Raiders car or Get Rhythm to not re-sign him in the office
Like they say “don’t want to risk it- don’t get no biscuit”,what the heck,if your not ——–!your not trying hard enough
i think carr is a great qb but in the last 3 to 4 games i think they are to prodictable on offince carr likes jones why dont he through to him bring in marlota for some plays the other team knows he can run they would have to plan for that an get jacobs out hes fat an slow give barber a few carries an why not blitz some mix it up
How about adding in Carr’s 3rd qtr hale marry in the middle of the field in the chiefs game….what 8 year Qb does that? 2nd qtr in the bengals game Carr rolls right and has Waller coming back to him at 15 yards…he could have put that where only Waller could have got it…be he chucks out of bounds…Raiders punt…he’s not a gamer…Mariota would have beat the giants and the bengals but Bisaccia won’t make the change. Carr has lost his compass without grudges.
Without Gruden
Unfortunately coming out of the bye week the OC has not provided enough “great “ options to win in short yardage . They know they have a weak line , they know jacobs is banged up. Yet no extra lineman to to help create hole , no Marriotta , no TE scheme .
After Bye week no creativity or change from OC and nothing for red zone . Coach is forced to put points on the board early ..
ie) 1st and goal opening minutes via Cinnci and Poor plays ( is that Carr or OC ??? ) …
I have been saying they are so predictable for a long time, they start off great and by week 3/4 every DC in the league knows what they will see, and every game the raiders come out and show them exactly what they already knew. hence they cannot move the ball, nor score points from week 5/6 on and the season collapses. The oc has no imagination, and the dc has no schemes and the never blitz, WTF, its like watching a high school team sometimes. looking forward to thanksgiving day but dread watching the raiders lose again. I was actually hoping that because of their bad play the game would get switched and not be shown! I’m going to family’s house for dinner and unfortuneitly everyone knows I’m a Raider fan and most everyone else is a Giants fan. Quite sad to be a fan and not want to watch a game. Sure would be nice if they could get their heads out of their asses and come up with a game plan with some imagination, they certainly have the weapons to do so many things, just f–ing use them “all” including Mariota!