Sunday’s contest against the Giants was both winnable and important to the Raiders postseason hopes.
So, naturally, they lost.
And, in the process, the Raiders lowered their playoff odds to a smidge better than a coin flip at 57%, according to The Upshot.
The immediate question: How did the Raiders lose a very winnable game? And the follow-up question: Can they correct it?
Let’s take a look at the plays that decided the game and try to answer both.
Editor’s Note: For an explanation of Win Probability (WP) and Expected Points Added (EPA), the first article in this series has a breakdown.
Yannick Ngakoue First-Quarter Strip Sack
The Situation: The Giants face a first and ten with 1:30 remaining in the first quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 58%
The Play: Yannick Ngakoue sacks and strips Daniel Jones and Darius Philon is there for the recovery.
In the 1st quarter, Yannick Ngakoue shows off his league-leading pass rush get-off time, en route to a strip sack of Daniel Jones. The fumble recovery is worth -5.8 EPA, making it the second biggest play of the game. pic.twitter.com/9M4CQYOjdb
— Travis Gilkeson (@TravisGilkeson) November 8, 2021
The Outcome: The early-game turnover is huge, giving the Raiders the ball in scoring position and raising their Win Probability by 13%.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 71%
Xavier McKinney Third-Quarter Pick Six
The Situation: The Raiders face a third and seven with 13:44 remaining in the third quarter.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 71%
The Play: Derek Carr’s short pass intended for Hunter Renfrow is instead intercepted by Xavier McKinney, who returns it for a touchdown.
The biggest play of the game happened on the first drive of the second half: Xavier McKinney intercepts Derek Carr and returns it for a TD, for an EPA of -7.1. pic.twitter.com/QqeDvX3gn7
— Travis Gilkeson (@TravisGilkeson) November 8, 2021
The Outcome: The pick six proves to be the biggest play of the game and turns the Raiders from solid favorites to slight underdogs.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 49%
Daniel Carlson Fourth-Quarter Missed Field Goal
The Situation: The Raiders face a fourth and three with 9:37 remaining in the game.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 49%
The Play: The normally reliable Carlson misses a chip-shot field goal wide left.
With the Raiders down 4 points, and time running out in the game, Daniel Carlson’s missed FG comes at an inopportune time and is worth an EPA of -3.7. pic.twitter.com/ASSREuWOUJ
— Travis Gilkeson (@TravisGilkeson) November 8, 2021
The Outcome: Carlson’s short miss is devastating with so little time left in the game, lowering the Raiders Win Probability by 18%.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 31%
Xavier McKinney Fourth-Quarter Interception
The Situation: The Raiders face a fourth and ten with 5:21 remaining in the game.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 33%
The Play: Derek Carr’s deep pass intended for Zay Jones is intercepted — again — by Xavier McKinney.
Derek Carr’s second INT of the day comes on a deep shot intended for Zay Jones, gives the Giants the ball at midfield and has an EPA of -3.3. pic.twitter.com/da0DlMQZ6I
— Travis Gilkeson (@TravisGilkeson) November 8, 2021
The Outcome: The interception lowers the Raiders Win Probability by 13%, solidifying the Giants as heavy favorites.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 20%
Giants Fourth-Quarter Strip Sack of Carr
The Situation: The Raiders face a second and ten with 44 seconds remaining in the game.
Pre-Play Raiders Win Probability: 24%
The Play: Quincy Roche beats Kolton Miller on the edge en route to sacking and stripping Derek Carr. Leonard Williams recovers the fumble for the Giants.
Quincy Roche’s strip sack of Derek Carr, with 44 seconds remaining in the game, is worth -4.2 EPA and seals the game for the Giants. pic.twitter.com/UV0mybv3zr
— Travis Gilkeson (@TravisGilkeson) November 8, 2021
The Outcome: The fumble recovery lowers the Raiders Win Probability by 23% and shuts the door on any comeback hopes.
Post-Play Raiders Win Probability: 1%
Conclusion
The answer to how the Raiders lost this game is crystal clear: losing the turnover battle, while not turning yards into points. In fact, four of the five biggest plays of the game fall into those categories.
The good news, however, is two-fold. One, the defense again played well. And, two, Carr has taken great care of the football all season, so it’s natural to expect these turnovers to be a one-game exception, not a trend.
They’ll get a new receiver, in DeSean Jackson, and a new opportunity to improve their playoff odds — and prove they can correct the turnovers — next week against the Chiefs.
Twitter: @TravisGilkeson
*Win probability data courtesy of rbsdm.com
**Highlights courtesy of NFL
There’s no excuse to the horrible play to the 2-5 Giants. I know you can’t take any team in this league for granted but the 2-5 Giants! Sloppy play from the offense, uncharacteristic turnovers by Carr,, the inability to generate points in the redzone, missed FG,etc; hopefully this isn’t a trend.
Let’s get back on the winning side of this thing!
Raider Nation!!
wow, the way this column starts with a strip sack of jones and then ends with a strip sack of carr is just…almost too perfect in the most awful way.